After the three-week Iran-US ceasefire collapsed completely, Friday, July 10, 2026 (19 Tir 1405) opened with one of the sharpest military escalations of recent weeks: according to NPR, UPI and Al Jazeera, US Central Command (CENTCOM) bombed nearly 90 targets across five Iranian provinces over two consecutive nights, and Iran's health ministry said at least 14 people, mostly military personnel, were killed and 78 wounded, with 47 still hospitalized. In response, according to The National and NPR, Iran struck US bases in Kuwait (a Patriot missile-defense site), Bahrain (fuel depots) and Qatar (an early-warning radar system) with kamikaze drones and missiles, and also hit the Al Azraq base in Jordan; falling debris from intercepted missiles wounded one person in Kuwait. The market reaction was immediate: the free-market dollar neared the 182,000-toman channel, Brent crude swung around $78 a barrel, and global gold stayed near a two-week low. The Tehran Stock Exchange remains closed on Friday, July 10 for the weekend and reopens Saturday, July 11, under the shadow of these developments.
Today at a Glance
| Free-market dollar | Near 182,000 tomans | Thursday evening through Friday morning, July 10 |
| 18-karat gold (per gram) | Near the 18,000,000-toman channel | Thursday, July 9 |
| Emami gold coin | Above 183,000,000 tomans | Thursday, July 9 |
| TEDPIX (Tehran All-Share Index) | 5,286,783 points (last session) | Close of trading, Wednesday, July 8 |
| Bitcoin | About $62,000 to $63,000 | Friday, July 10 |
| Brent crude | About $78.5 | Friday, July 10 |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | About 100.9 | Friday, July 10 |
Today's Headlines
- CENTCOM bombed nearly 90 targets across five Iranian provinces over two consecutive nights; Iran struck US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan with drones and missiles (per NPR and Al Jazeera, Thursday, July 9).
- Iran's health ministry reported at least 14 killed and 78 wounded in the past two days of US strikes; falling missile debris also wounded one person in Kuwait (per UPI, ABC News and Kuwait's Ministry of Defense, Thursday, July 9).
- Al Jazeera reported fresh explosions across southern Iran on Friday, July 10, including near Bushehr, Chabahar, Bandar Abbas and Jask; a US official told the network the US military was not behind the latest blasts.
- Per ABC News, despite the military escalation, technical nuclear talks between Iran and the US are continuing with Qatari and Pakistani mediation.
- The free-market dollar, which crossed the 180,000-toman channel at dawn Thursday, reached near 182,000 tomans by the end of the day, according to domestic media reports.
Currency
The free-market dollar crossed the 180,000-toman channel at dawn Thursday, July 9, reaching 180,195 tomans (source: TGJU); domestic reports described the rate extending toward roughly 182,000 tomans by the end of Thursday. The jump coincided with escalating military tension and rising perceived risk to the country's oil revenue after the US Treasury revoked Iran's limited oil-sale license in recent days. The official "agreed" (توافقی) rate at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center closed Wednesday, July 8 at 148,549 tomans (sell side); the gap to the free rate has widened to roughly 31,000 to 33,000 tomans (near 21%), among the widest in recent months. The central bank had not issued a fresh policy statement on the move as of this report. Live rates are available on Sahmino's currency price page.
Gold and Coin
18-karat gold per gram reached 17,883,000 tomans at dawn Thursday, July 9, and domestic media reported it nearing the 18-million-toman channel by day's end. The Emami coin, at 181,510,000 tomans at Wednesday's close, crossed the 183-million-toman mark on Thursday. The coin premium (the gap between the coin's price and the intrinsic value of its gold and dollar content) rose 6.85% week over week to about 7,091,000 tomans (source: TGJU), even as global gold fell for a second straight day, a sign the domestic gold and coin rally is being driven mainly by the rial's slide rather than a rising global ounce. More detail is in Sahmino's earlier report on the coin premium, and live rates are on the gold price page.
Stocks
The Tehran Stock Exchange is closed for the weekend on Thursday and Friday (18 and 19 Tir). The last session, Wednesday, July 8, closed with TEDPIX down 24,741 points (0.47%) at 5,286,783; the equal-weight index fell 5,419 points (0.39%), with only about 18% of symbols in the green. Heavily traded names Fars, Fameli, Shepna, Vabmellat, Khodro and Shabandar bore the brunt of the selling. For the week overall, however, TEDPIX still posted a gain, its seventh straight weekly rise. Trading resumes Saturday, July 11, exactly two days after this week's sharp military escalation, in what will be the market's first pricing reaction to Thursday's and Friday's attacks. Symbol-level detail is on the stock price page.
Crypto
Global crypto markets stayed under pressure alongside broader risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin, trading around $62,300 on Thursday, held in the $62,000 to $63,000 range on Friday (sources: Yahoo Finance, Robinhood). Ethereum priced around $1,740 to $1,750 (sources: Fortune, Coinbase), slightly above Thursday's level. The tether-toman rate continues to track the free dollar, swinging between roughly 179,000 and 183,000 tomans. The US Congress committee hearing on the CLARITY Act on July 17 (26 Tir) is an upcoming event for this market. Live rates are on Sahmino's crypto price page.
Steel
The rebar market was calmer this week than in prior high-tension weeks; per Ta'adol newspaper, prices ranged from 57,910 to 71,820 tomans per kilogram depending on brand and size. For example, Arian Steel's ribbed size-10 rebar rose 1,000 tomans to 64,128 tomans, and Novin Matin's plain size-10 rebar reached 65,688 tomans. Ta'adol attributed the relative calm to fading volatility and a return to trading driven by real end-user demand; but with the dollar's fresh jump on Thursday and Friday, the FX pass-through to imported inputs and export-grade billet is the key driver to watch in the coming week.
Cars
Per market participants, the car market in the third week of Tir has reached a "hard price floor" despite subdued trading volume. In the last recorded pricing, Wednesday, July 8, the Rira was the most expensive domestic model at 3,400,000,000 tomans, while the Quick GXL and manual Saina S were the cheapest sedans at about 1,210,000,000 tomans. These figures predate Thursday's military escalation, and with the dollar's simultaneous jump, the risk of the market margin (the gap between factory and free-market prices) widening again in the coming days has increased. The Competition Council's dispute with the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade over the 15% factory-price increase remains open with regulatory bodies. Updated prices are on the vehicle price page.
Building Materials
The cement market has been more resilient to the sharp currency and metals volatility than other markets; in the last recorded reading (June 27 / 6 Tir), Tehran bagged cement (Type 2) traded around 253,000 tomans and Sefidan cement (Type 2) around 281,000 tomans per bag. No fresh reading showing a notable change has been published since, and controlled supply through the Iran Mercantile Exchange continues to be cited as the main source of the market's relative stability.
Regional and Global Backdrop
Brent crude, which jumped more than 5% to above $78 on Wednesday, eased back toward $77 on Thursday as tensions briefly cooled, then climbed back to the $78 to $79 range on Friday as attacks resumed around the Persian Gulf; West Texas Intermediate traded around $72. The US Dollar Index (DXY) held relatively steady in the 100.9 to 101 range, as war-driven safe-haven demand offset uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate path. Global gold, under pressure from a relatively firm dollar, stayed in the $4,070 to $4,120 per ounce range, near its recent two-week low. Regionally, the Iraqi dinar traded at an interbank rate of 1,308.2 per dollar on Friday, July 10; Iraq's central bank buys dollars from the finance ministry at 1,300 dinars and sells to local banks at 1,310 dinars, a channel that carries part of the currency flow tied to Iran-Iraq trade. China, still Iran's largest oil buyer, remains the main outlet for Iran's sanctioned oil exports settled in yuan as the US oil-sanctions waiver lapses again. The Turkish lira and Russian ruble held at this week's recorded levels (about 46.8 and 76.3 per dollar respectively) with no notable change.
What to Watch Today
- The Tehran Stock Exchange's reaction on Saturday, July 11, its first session after Thursday's and Friday's military escalation.
- Whether Iran-US technical nuclear talks, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, continue or stall in the coming days.
- Any central bank response to the free-market dollar's approach to the 182,000-toman channel.
- Any fresh Strait of Hormuz developments over the weekend and their effect on oil and shipping insurance.
- The US Congress committee hearing on the CLARITY Act on July 17 (26 Tir) and its potential effect on crypto markets.
- China's Q2 GDP and June trade data, due July 14 to 15 (23 to 24 Tir). More events are on Sahmino's market calendar.
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