Lead
Screening trading data, retail and institutional money flow, and fundamentals cards for more than 1,500 Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) and Iran Fara Bourse instruments, through the last trading session (Wednesday, August 19, 2026 / 28 Mordad 1405) and the latest price updates (Friday, August 21, 2026 / 30 Mordad 1405), Sahmino has identified four sectors for the coming trading week (Saturday, August 22 through Wednesday, August 26) that simultaneously meet several conditions: strong three-month returns, money flowing toward the sector, drivers likely to persist, and fresh on-tape (تابلو) signals. This report names no individual stock; it examines the sectors themselves only.
Backdrop
The Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran Fara Bourse are closed today and tomorrow (Thursday and Friday, 29 and 30 Mordad) per the trading calendar and reopen Saturday, August 22, 2026 (31 Mordad 1405). In the last session, Wednesday, August 19, TEDPIX (Tehran's all-share index) rose 4,928 points to close at 5,952,488, and the equal-weight index rose 13,131 points to 1,686,843; trade value that day reached roughly 374,508 billion rials (about 37,451 billion tomans). Behind that rally: Tehran's free-market dollar closed Thursday evening, August 20, at 1,894,050 rials (189,405 tomans), and Brent crude stood at $93.70 at 18:17 today, extending what Sahmino's own reporting today calls oil's fifth consecutive daily gain, driven mainly by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz tension and the Iran-U.S. diplomatic standoff. A softening rial and a rising Brent are the two threads running through this week's sector picks.
Four sectors, by the data
1. Oil refining and petroleum products
Why this sector: Screening the sector's 12 TSE-listed names, three-month returns for its larger constituents, as computed today, range from roughly 30% to over 160%; Sahmino's composite score reaches 83 out of 100 for one name in the group, among the highest anywhere in the market. This week's key driver: Brent crude, at $93.70 today, having crossed $93 overnight for the first time in this stretch, per Sahmino's own reporting. Key signal: one large name in the sector hit its highest close in a year on Wednesday, August 19, per recorded on-tape events, while carrying an active buy queue the same session. Key risk: that same session, at least two large names in the sector opened 2.5% to 2.8% below the prior close, a sign of volatility and profit-taking after the recent sharp run. Verdict: the sector most directly tied to global oil prices and Hormuz tension; whether the driver holds depends on the tension holding, not on anything domestic.
2. Basic metals (steel and copper)
Why this sector: across the sector's 49 names, three-month returns range from roughly 25% to over 160%, with Sahmino composite scores mostly clustering between 60 and 67. This week's key driver: the free-market dollar, at 1,894,050 rials Thursday evening, which widens the gap between metal producers' dollar-denominated export revenue and their rial costs. Key signal: one of the sector's largest producers, previously halted earlier this summer due to the war, logged four consecutive higher closes through Wednesday, August 19, per recorded on-tape events. Key risk: that same leading name's one-month return, unlike its positive three-month and one-year returns, came in at -3.49%, a sign the sector has entered a consolidation phase after its sharp summer run. Verdict: a dollar-linked sector with a strong fundamental driver, but with clear signs of short-term fatigue in its lead name.
3. Banks and credit institutions
Why this sector: of the sector's 15 names, nearly all posted double- to triple-digit three-month returns (roughly 44% to over 140% in the sample screened), a broader and less scattered rally than the market average. This week's key driver: money rotating out of sectors that had already pushed the index to record highs and into a group that had lagged until recently, plus the effect of rial weakness on the revalued FX assets some banks hold. Key signal: one large name in the sector, per recorded on-tape events, posted its highest close since mid-June on Wednesday, August 19, with its 20-day moving average crossing above its 50-day average the same day; another logged its 17th consecutive higher close that same session, alongside a buy queue at a fresh 52-week high. Even so, the sector leader's price-to-book ratio remains around 0.8, meaning the group has not become expensive despite the rally. Key risk: several large names are simultaneously testing multi-month or one-year highs, leaving less room for positive surprise, and loan-book quality and provisioning remain the least transparent part of the sector's picture. Verdict: a sector both catching up to the rally and still closing the gap; money rotation, more than headlines, is the driver here.
4. Automotive and auto parts
Why this sector: across the sector's 40 names, most large names gained roughly 20% to 90% over three months, with retail money flowing steadily into the group over the last five sessions. This week's key driver: the unresolved dispute between the Competition Council and the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade over car pricing; the council previously called the ministry's approved 15% price increase insufficient against its own recommended 25%, a dispute still unsettled. Key signal: one large automaker, per recorded on-tape events, hit its highest close since January 21 on Wednesday, August 19, having already logged a 20/50-day moving-average golden cross on August 16, a sign of a steadier uptrend rather than a single spike. Key risk: the very same pricing dispute driving the rally could just as easily reverse it; any new unfavorable ruling or delay from either institution could turn the group around. Verdict: a sector whose coming week is being decided not by the market, but by a still-open institutional dispute.
Shared drivers
Behind all four picks sit two shared macro drivers. First, the free-market dollar, at 1,894,050 rials Thursday evening, which strengthens export-facing dollar-linked sectors (refining, basic metals) through their foreign-currency revenue. Second, money rotation within the market itself: with TEDPIX above 5.95 million points after its recent climb, some capital has shifted toward sectors either directly exposed to global prices (oil) or still lagging the broader index (banks). Automotive is the one sector here whose main driver is neither the dollar nor money rotation, but a still-pending domestic regulatory decision.
Outlook
This report offers no price forecast and is not investment advice; it identifies sectors that, on data through August 21, 2026 (30 Mordad 1405), show the most overlap of driver, money flow and on-tape signal. Whether this holds through the week of August 22-26 (31 Mordad to 4 Shahrivar) depends on two external factors outside Sahmino's control: the path of global oil prices and Strait of Hormuz tension on one side, and the path of Tehran's free-market dollar on the other. A sudden shift in either, especially a diplomatic easing that pulls oil down, could reshuffle this ranking within the same week.
Bottom line
Among Tehran Stock Exchange sectors, oil refining, basic metals, banks and automotive show the most overlap of strong returns, money flow and a driver likely to persist for the coming trading week; the dollar and global oil build the first three, an institutional dispute builds the fourth. The key point for the week ahead: none of these drivers is guaranteed, basic metals already shows short-term fatigue, and automotive is tied to a decision outside the market entirely.
What to watch
- The Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran Fara Bourse reopening Saturday, August 22, 2026, and TEDPIX's initial reaction above the 5.95-million-point level.
- Brent crude's path above $93 and any fresh development on Strait of Hormuz tension.
- The path of Tehran's free-market dollar, at 1,894,050 rials Thursday evening.
- Any fresh announcement from the Competition Council or the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade on car pricing.
- Whether basic metals' lead name, after a negative one-month return, stabilizes or resumes its uptrend.
- Upcoming dated events on Sahmino's economic calendar.
