A Record and a Warning, at the Same Time
The Tehran Stock Exchange closed Sunday, 18 Mordad 1405 (August 9, 2026), with a record and a warning sign at once: retail trading value in stocks, subscription rights and equity funds topped 65 trillion tomans (65.5 hemat, or "trillion-toman units") for the first time in the market's history. The same day, roughly 6.9 trillion tomans of retail money left the market on a net basis, one of the largest single-day retail outflows in recent months. TEDPIX still rose 0.72 percent (39,625 points) to close at 5,559,964 points.
Backdrop
Tehran's bourse has had a fairly steady run in recent weeks. Sahmino's own trading data show that across five straight sessions from 12 to 17 Mordad 1405 (3 to 8 August 2026), retail (individual) money was a net buyer every single day, as Sahmino reported the same day. On Sunday, 18 Mordad, that pattern flipped for the first time in the run: individual investors turned net sellers.
The retail turnover record has also been broken repeatedly in recent weeks. Sahmino reported on Tuesday, 6 Mordad 1405 (28 July 2026), that retail trading value had crossed 31 trillion tomans for the first time, a record at the time; in under three weeks that figure has more than doubled. Today's heavy volume also coincides with a recent stretch of small-cap leadership and repeated equal-weight index records.
Today's Numbers
TEDPIX rose 39,625 points (0.72 percent) on Sunday, 18 Mordad, closing at 5,559,964 points, a figure confirmed by Sahmino's own trading data as well as same-day reports from Donya-e-Eqtesad and Bourse24. The equal-weight index rose 256 points (0.02 percent) to 1,573,853 points.
Retail trading value in the stock market reached 65,505 billion tomans, according to Donya-e-Eqtesad; Ecoiran put the figure at about 66,000 billion tomans and Bourse24 reported 65.5 hemat, all three flagging it as an all-time record. At the same time, all three sources reported a net retail outflow of about 6.9 hemat (6.9 trillion tomans). The board also shifted noticeably: Donya-e-Eqtesad reported 454 symbols (about 54 percent) closed lower against 381 that closed higher, a split Bourse24 also confirmed, describing "54 percent red dominance" on the closing board.
What Is Driving It
Today's combination, a record trading value alongside a heavy retail outflow, looks more like profit-taking than fresh money entering the market. Tehran's bourse has broken records repeatedly in recent weeks and TEDPIX has opened several new psychological channels; such stretches typically draw out more sellers over time, especially in symbols that had spent days locked in buy queues and only now saw genuine two-way trading. That unlocking of buy queues is itself one direct driver of today's jump in trading value, since more shares changed hands across a wider range of prices. For behavioral context on this kind of pattern, Sahmino has previously written about common cognitive biases near market peaks, a caution that applies to reading this kind of data without presuming what comes next.
Outlook
Donya-e-Eqtesad's own report characterized today's trading as a sign that "the continuation of the uptrend in tomorrow's session cannot be stated with confidence." That is not a firm prediction, but a reflection of the uncertainty visible on today's board: demand has not disappeared entirely, but sellers have also grown more active after several consecutive days of gains. Tomorrow's session, Monday, 19 Mordad, will be the first test of that uncertainty.
Takeaway
Today's Tehran bourse session cuts two ways: on one hand, the historic retail turnover record shows unprecedented market participation; on the other, the 6.9 trillion toman retail outflow and the reversal of a five-day buying streak show that a significant share of that participation was selling and profit-taking, not fresh money coming in. The one thing worth remembering: today's 0.72 percent index gain came on record volume, a large part of which, per today's reports, was money leaving rather than arriving.
What to Watch
Tomorrow's session, Monday, 19 Mordad 1405, will show whether today's retail outflow was a one-day profit-taking event or the start of a broader selling trend. It is also worth watching whether retail trading value holds above 50 hemat or reverts toward the recent weekly average of around 20 hemat.
