The Tehran Stock Exchange closed Saturday 1 August 2026 (10 Mordad 1405) with two headlines that appear to contradict each other. TEDPIX, the main cap-weighted index, fell 20,437 points, or 0.40%, from 5,075,000 to 5,054,000 (Donya-e-Eqtesad and EcoIran, 1 August 2026); Sahmino's own TEDPIX board put the gauge at 5,054,787 at 15:51 the same day. Yet in the same session the equal-weight index rose by more than 6,694 points to 1,439,000, the highest level it has ever recorded at a market close, with an intraday peak of 1,442,000 (Eghtesad Online, 1 August 2026).
This is not a contradiction. It is the most precise thing today's board says about the market. According to Donya-e-Eqtesad (1 August 2026), this was the fourth consecutive trading session in which the equal-weight gauge outperformed TEDPIX.
Background: the week that turned the market around
Understanding today requires stepping back a week. The Tehran bourse closed the week ending Wednesday 29 July 2026 (7 Mordad 1405) higher after two weeks of correction: TEDPIX gained 3.9% to 5,075,000, reclaiming the psychological 5 million threshold, while the equal-weight index rose 5.66% to 1,432,000, its best weekly showing in six weeks and a fresh all-time high (Bourse News, and Eghtesad Online citing the Tasnim news agency, 1 August 2026). Retail investors ("haqiqi", individual as opposed to institutional accounts) were net buyers on four of the week's five trading days, bringing in more than 6,300 billion tomans in total, with average daily retail turnover of about 27,000 billion tomans. The indices of 36 of the exchange's 40 active industries rose that week (Bourse News, 1 August 2026). We covered that week in Saturday morning's Market Pulse.
Now the historical anchor. Since the start of the Iranian year 1405 (which began 21 March 2026), the equal-weight index has returned about 50% while TEDPIX has returned about 37%. That 13 percentage point gap says the engine of the market's advance in recent months has been small and mid-sized companies, not the large index heavyweights (Bourse News and Donya-e-Eqtesad, 1 August 2026). That figure, rather than any single day's record, is what defines this year's market.
Saturday 1 August 2026 by the numbers
| Metric | Close |
|---|
| TEDPIX | 5,054,000 (down 20,437 points, down 0.40%) |
| Equal-weight index | 1,439,000 (up 6,694 points), record close |
| Equal-weight intraday peak | 1,442,000 |
| Advancing vs declining symbols | 439 against 460 (49% of the market positive) |
| Buy vs sell queues | 225 against 139 |
| Retail money flow | outflow of more than 1,300 billion tomans |
| Retail turnover | more than 26,500 billion tomans |
| Average industry index return | 0.26%; 22 industry indices positive |
Table sources: Eghtesad Online, EcoIran, Donya-e-Eqtesad and SENA, all 1 August 2026. Donya-e-Eqtesad puts today's retail outflow at about 1,400 billion tomans.
Drivers: why the two gauges separated
The mechanism is simple, and it is the one set out in our lesson on TEDPIX versus the equal-weight index: TEDPIX weights each company by its market capitalisation, so a handful of giants determine the number, while the equal-weight index gives every company the same weight, so it reports what the majority of the market did. When the two separate, pressure or growth has concentrated in one class of company.
Today that class was clear. The heaviest drag on TEDPIX came from Shepna (Isfahan Oil Refining), Shebandar (Bandar Abbas Oil Refining) and Parsan, and the drilling and refined petroleum products group posted the largest decline of any sector, while Femeli (National Iranian Copper), Kegol (Golgohar) and Tasico kept the index from falling further (Eghtesad Online, 1 August 2026). In its closing report the same day, EcoIran attributed the session's caution to policy ambiguity around the refiners and to political risk, noting that concern over an escalation in regional military tensions, following a report that a fresh strike plan was under consideration, shaped trading on the week's first session (EcoIran, 1 August 2026).
The broad market went the other way. According to SENA, the capital market news agency (1 August 2026), the average return across the exchange's active industry indices was 0.26% and 22 industry indices rose. More striking, seven industry indices set all-time highs in the same session: agriculture at 1,022,000, coal at 115,553, metal ore extraction at 726,100, publishing and printing at 4,467,000, sugar at 454,000, tile and ceramics at 132,000, and non-metallic minerals at 125,213. The largest daily gain went to the radio equipment group at 3.51%, and the largest decline to oil extraction at 2.58%.
In other words: on the very day refiners and oil names pulled TEDPIX down, seven other industries hit record peaks. That is the operational definition of market breadth, whether a move is concentrated in a few symbols or spread across the body of the market.
The other side: a record on a day money left
This is where optimism needs qualifying, because three points complete the picture.
First, today's record was not built with new money. Unlike last week, when more than 6,300 billion tomans of retail money came in, today more than 1,300 billion tomans of retail money left the equity market (EcoIran, 1 August 2026); Donya-e-Eqtesad reports the figure at about 1,400 billion tomans. The equal-weight record close was set on a day of outflow, not on a day of inrushing liquidity.
Second, today was not a green day. In Saturday's session 439 symbols traded positive against 460 negative, meaning 49% of the market was in positive territory (Eghtesad Online, 1 August 2026). The equal-weight index rising while a majority of symbols fell means the advancing names gained more than the declining ones lost. And the "36 of 40 industries green" figure belongs to the week ending 29 July, not to today's session, in which 22 industries were positive.
Third, one good week is not a trend. The market went through two weeks of correction before this, and the political and military backdrop remains tense.
Outlook
This section is interpretation and attribution, not recorded fact. In the assessment of Bourse News (1 August 2026), a continued advance depends on sustained liquidity inflow, holding demand, and stability in economic and political variables, and a genuinely broad uptrend would also require the large index-heavyweight companies to join in. From another angle, Donya-e-Eqtesad noted in a report the same day that TEDPIX's return to the 5 million channel has coincided with a continuing contraction in the industrial purchasing managers' index, meaning a rising board does not necessarily translate into improvement in the real economy.
The bottom line
Today's market in one sentence: the number everyone saw (TEDPIX down 0.4%) mattered less than the number almost nobody saw (the equal-weight index's record close at 1,439,000, and seven industries at all-time highs). Why it matters: most retail portfolios are filled with small and mid-cap symbols rather than index heavyweights, so a red headline board and a green personal portfolio can both be true at once. The one thing to remember: TEDPIX is one number, not the whole market, and today was precisely the day that distinction showed itself. But this record was set on a day of retail outflow, so do not read it as a rush of liquidity.
What to watch
Three variables, for observation only and with no buy or sell recommendation. First, whether today's retail outflow was a one-day pause or extends into the coming sessions. Second, retail turnover, and whether it holds in the 26,000 to 27,000 billion toman channel. Third, whether the large index-heavyweight names, particularly the refining group, rejoin the rest of the market or the gap between the two gauges persists. Live equity market figures are on Sahmino's stock prices page.
Analysis
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Analysis