Imagine that in 1380 (2001) six people each had 100,000 toman. One bought shares, one bought a gold coin, one bought a home in Tehran, one bought dollars, one put the money in a bank deposit, and one bought a Pride car. Twenty years later, at the end of 1400 (2022), how far apart had these six drifted?
The answer is one of the most telling tables in Iran's economy. The share buyer's 100,000 toman became about 38 million toman; the same sum in a bank deposit became about 3.8 million toman, exactly ten times less. But the number that gives the whole table its meaning is neither the bourse nor the bank: over the same span, Iran's money supply grew about 119 times.
Background: Why Money Supply Is the Yardstick, Not the Dollar
Comparing market returns without a baseline produces a meaningless figure. Saying "Tehran housing rose 96 times" sounds like remarkable news, yet until we know how much the volume of money in the economy multiplied, we cannot tell whether that 96 times was a win or a loss.
Money supply (naghdinegi, the broad measure of money in circulation) does exactly that job: it roughly shows how many times over the volume of money in the economy has multiplied. Any asset that grew more slowly than money supply did not, in practice, preserve its owner's purchasing power, even if its rial figure got bigger and it showed a profit on paper. This is the difference between nominal and real return, a subject examined with today's figures in our earlier analysis of the "risk free" return against inflation.
The Twenty Year Table
Based on a summary by the Securities and Exchange News Agency (SENA) of asset class returns over the 1380 to 1400 span (2001 to 2022):
| Asset | Growth multiple over 20 years | 100,000 toman became |
|---|
| TSE main index (TEDPIX) | about 382 times | about 38 million toman |
| Gold coin (old design) | about 190 times | about 19 million toman |
| Tehran housing | about 96 times | about 9.6 million toman |
| Bank deposit | about 38 times | about 3.8 million toman |
| Free market dollar | about 35 times | about 3.5 million toman |
| Car (Pride) | about 28 times | about 2.8 million toman |
And the yardstick against which all of it is measured: money supply grew about 119 times over the same span.
By that standard the table splits into two clear groups. Only two markets stand above money supply: the bourse, growing about 3.2 times faster than money supply, and gold coins, at about 1.6 times. Below money supply sit the other four: Tehran housing (a ratio of about 0.8), bank deposits (about 0.32), the free market dollar (about 0.29) and cars (about 0.24). SENA's own conclusion points the same way: over the past two decades, the accessible asset classes that managed to cover inflation were mainly the capital market and gold.
The Drivers: Productive Assets Versus Idle Money
The most surprising row in the table is the dollar. The common belief is that "the dollar always wins", yet over the twenty year span the dollar grew about 35 times, less than a third of money supply, and even fell slightly behind bank deposits.
The reason is simple and mechanical: the dollar is not a productive asset. It pays no dividend, collects no rent and produces nothing. All it does is track the gap between domestic and foreign inflation, and it does so with a lag and in jumps, the mechanism set out in the four channels that set the exchange rate. The dollar stays nearly flat for years, then catches up within a few months, and it is precisely those short jumps that lodge in collective memory and build the "always wins" picture. The twenty year average says something else.
On the other side, the main index measures the return of a weighted basket of companies that sell goods, generate profit and distribute part of it; cash dividends are included in the main index calculation. Gold coins, in turn, are backed by global demand for a metal that has itself acted as a shield against dollar inflation. In other words, both winners in the table had something beyond price alone. That difference, between a productive asset and idle money, is the main driver of the entire table.
Four Caveats That Make the Table More Honest
These figures are compelling, but read without explanation they mislead.
- The main index is nobody's actual experience. The index measures the return of a weighted basket of the whole market plus cash dividends. Almost nobody bought exactly that basket in 1380 and held it untouched for twenty years. Any individual's real return depends on which shares they picked and when they entered and exited.
- The start and end dates change everything. Draw the same table for 1399 to 1402 (2020 to 2024) and the picture is completely different: someone who entered at the market peak in Mordad 1399 (August 2020) needed years just to get back to their original capital. A twenty year average hides the pain of those three years.
- Housing is not only price growth. The 96 times figure for Tehran housing excludes rental income. Counting rent narrows the gap with the rest; against that, housing also carries maintenance costs, taxes and illiquidity.
- Risk is invisible in the table. A bank deposit has almost zero volatility, while the bourse went through several drawdowns of more than 40 percent over the same span. Comparing returns without comparing volatility is an incomplete comparison, and how that volatility behaves alongside yield is covered in our lesson on fixed income and treasury bills.
Outlook
So that this discussion does not float free of the present, here is today's picture: the TSE main index was trading at 5,057,449 points at 09:25 on Wednesday, 7 Mordad 1405 (29 July 2026), 1.02 percent below the previous day. In the latest update on 6 Mordad 1405 (28 July 2026, 19:59), the US dollar stood at about 190,200 toman and the Emami gold coin at about 184 million toman. Year on year inflation for Tir 1405 (July 2026) was reported by the Statistical Center of Iran at about 83.9 percent.
Twenty years from now, someone will draw a fresh table of these same markets. Which column will stand at the top is not predictable today, and this piece makes no claim about it. But one thing is certain: the money supply column will be in that table again, and it will again be the yardstick.
Conclusion
The lesson of this table is not "buy shares". It is a simpler and deeper rule: in an economy with high inflation and rapid money supply growth, holding money as money is the most expensive decision available. Bank deposits multiplied about 38 times over these twenty years while the volume of money multiplied 119 times, which means the conservative saver, without accepting any risk at all, lost roughly two thirds of their purchasing power.
This is the risk of taking no risk, and it never appears on a bank statement. If one thing is worth remembering from this table, it is this: in this economy, indecision is also a decision, and you pay for it.
What to Watch
Three numbers will rewrite this table in the years ahead, and all three are observable: the money supply growth rate in Central Bank reports (the yardstick), the monthly year on year inflation print from the Statistical Center of Iran, and the market's price to earnings ratio, which tells you whether today's entry point is expensive or cheap. The basics of each are explained in Sahmino Learn.
This article is not buy or sell advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and every investment decision should be made in line with each individual's time horizon, risk tolerance and financial circumstances.
Analysis
Educational
Educational
Analysis