Iran's domestic markets are closed today, Friday 9 Mordad 1405 (31 July 2026), and the last recorded prices date to Thursday 8 Mordad (30 July). The global market, however, is awake, and one number in it matters more than any figure on today's board: Brent crude is trading near $85.50 on Friday morning, about 20% above where it stood a month ago. On Sahmino's own price series, Brent closed at $71.25 on 1 July 2026 and stands at $85.50 today, 31 July: a 20.0% gain over one month. Trading Economics recorded 19.58% for the same window. The catch is that this gain did not happen in the closing days of the month; Brent has fallen about 13% from its 23 July peak of $98.45. The market first built a large risk premium and is now handing part of it back, while the floor sits far above where it was a month ago. For an economy whose foreign-currency income and budget balance are tied to this number, the month's level matters more than the day's tick.
Today's snapshot
Domestic prices refer to the last working day (Thursday 8 Mordad 1405 / 30 July 2026) and global prices to Friday morning, 9 Mordad 1405 (31 July 2026), 8:00 Tehran time.
| Market | Latest | Change | As of |
|---|
| Brent crude | $85.5 | up 20.0% in a month, down 13% from the 23 July peak | 31 July, 08:00 |
| Spot gold | $4,078 | 0.8% down | 31 July, 08:00 |
| Bitcoin | $64,266 | 0.9% down | 31 July, 08:00 |
| Free-market dollar (sell) | 192,400 tomans | down 1,100 tomans | 30 July, close |
| Exchange Centre remittance dollar (sell) | 152,786 tomans | 0.24% up | 30 July |
| 18-karat gold | 18,665,400 tomans | 0.78% down | 30 July, close |
| Emami coin | 188,010,000 tomans | little changed | 30 July, close |
| TEDPIX (main index) | 5,075,099 points | last trade of the week | 29 July, session close |
Today's headlines
- According to Trading Economics (30 July 2026), Saudi Arabia held talks with representatives of 43 countries about forming a maritime coalition to safeguard Red Sea shipping routes, a question raised after that route was blocked last week.
- According to OilPrice (29 July 2026), OPEC+ is preparing to stop raising its output targets, a change that, if confirmed, would shift one of the main supply variables for the second half of the year.
- According to Trading Economics (30 July 2026), tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased after a recent slowdown, allowing millions of barrels of crude to pass.
- According to OilPrice (30 July 2026), Goldman Sachs called the diesel shortage the biggest current squeeze in oil markets, noting that global refining activity is at its lowest for this time of year since 2020.
- According to Bourse News, retail trading value on the equity market reached 31 hemat in the week's final session, and real-money (individual investor) inflows into the exchange continued.
- According to Donya-e-Eqtesad (8 Mordad 1405 / 30 July 2026), the fuel consumption management policy has begun with a cut to the 3,000-toman petrol quota.
Regional and global backdrop: the month that repriced energy
Brent crude is trading near $85.50 on the morning of Friday 31 July 2026. Three independent sources confirm that level: Sahmino's price series at $85.50, Sahmino's live feed at $85.62 and Trading Economics at $85.59 for 31 July 2026.
The key point is the choice of window, because two different figures exist and both are correct. Against one month ago (1 July, $71.25) Brent is 20.0% higher; Trading Economics recorded 19.58% for the same window. But against the end of June ($73.41 on 30 June) the gain is 16.5%. Both numbers say the same thing: the floor under the oil price has shifted meaningfully in one month.
The mechanism behind that shift is clear: the market has priced a premium for supply risk on maritime routes. Trading Economics (30 July) identified renewed fighting between the United States and Iran, and the threat of disruption to West Asian energy supply, as the main driver of that premium. Three chokepoints are under pressure at once, and it is this layering that separates the current month from earlier waves. In the Red Sea, the shipping route was blocked last week and Saudi Arabia's talks with 43 countries on a maritime coalition are now under way. In the Black Sea, loadings at the export terminal critical to Kazakhstan's crude shipments were suspended once again after fresh attacks on oil tankers. At the Strait of Hormuz, traffic has picked up after the recent slowdown, and according to OilPrice (30 July) Qatar has sent its first LNG cargo through the strait since the recent tanker attack. When three routes carry risk simultaneously, the market prices not a single headline but the sum of the probabilities. Sahmino previously covered the OPEC+ decision on Mordad output and Persian Gulf export flows through the Strait of Hormuz; that file has now entered a new phase.
The other side of the story deserves equal weight: Brent rose as high as $98.45 on 23 July and has come down about 13% from that peak (Sahmino price series). Part of the risk premium was handed back over the past week. Brent's 20-day realised volatility stands at 4.66%, a figure that shows this market has not yet settled.
Elsewhere in global markets, spot gold is trading near $4,078 on Friday morning, down about 0.8% (Sahmino's feed and TGJU, 31 July, 08:00). Spot silver at the same hour is up about 1.2% at $58.50, meaning silver and gold parted ways this morning. In global currencies, the euro is at $1.1511 (down 0.16%), the dollar at 160.74 yen (up 0.78%) and at 47.42 Turkish lira. On the corporate side, OilPrice (30 July) reported that Shell posted $9.8 billion in adjusted earnings, a direct reflection of the same energy price surge.
The channel to Tehran: costlier oil means, in the short term, more foreign-currency income and less pressure on the budget balance, but it simultaneously raises freight and cargo insurance costs, which in practice offsets part of that price gain. The two effects run in opposite directions, and which one dominates depends on whether maritime route risk persists or subsides. This paragraph is observation, not forecast.
Currency: a gap that stands at 39,600 tomans
On the last working day (Thursday 8 Mordad 1405 / 30 July 2026), the free-market dollar was recorded at a selling rate of 192,400 tomans and a buying rate of 190,500 tomans, a fall of about 1,100 tomans (0.57%) from the day before. On the other side, the Exchange Centre remittance dollar was recorded at a selling rate of 152,786 tomans, up 0.24%.
The distance between the two rates is about 39,600 tomans, meaning the free rate sits close to 26% above the remittance rate. The point of the day is not that the gap exists, but that on a day when the free rate fell, the remittance rate rose: the two moved in opposite directions and the gap narrowed slightly. This behaviour is typically seen when supply into the official system strengthens while cash demand in the free market is cool. The two-day weekend closure means no new rate will be discovered until Saturday 10 Mordad (1 August).
Gold and coin: the premium narrowed
18-karat gold closed Thursday 8 Mordad at 18,665,400 tomans per gram, down 0.78%. Cash melted gold was recorded at 80,875,000 tomans and the Emami coin at 188,010,000 tomans. This morning's board figures are the same as Thursday's, because the domestic market is closed.
The notable number in this section is the premium: the Emami coin premium stands at 3,278,000 tomans and the melted-gold premium at 300,711 tomans. The coin premium has swelled and shrunk repeatedly in recent weeks and now sits at a level far narrower than its recent peaks. The mechanism is simple: the premium is the distance between the coin's price and the intrinsic value of the gold inside it, and when spot gold and the dollar rate both calm at the same time, the incentive to pay a markup for a coin falls. Silver, though, went its own way: the gram of 999 silver rose 1.49% to 379,900 tomans.
Stocks: closed, with a green board left on the table
The Tehran Stock Exchange is closed on Thursday and Friday, and the week's final trading session was held on Wednesday 7 Mordad 1405 (29 July 2026). The main index ended that session at 5,075,099 points, and the Iran Fara Bourse index closed up 0.26% at 40,968 points.
Two capital-market items are worth following. According to Bourse News, retail trading value in the final session reached 31 hemat and real-money inflows into the market continued, a combination that usually signals the demand side staying warm. The same source reported that all permits relating to the management of wartime conditions have been extended. The next session is Saturday 10 Mordad (1 August), when the market will price two days of accumulated news at once.
Crypto: Tether moved above the cash dollar
Bitcoin is trading near $64,266 on the morning of Friday 9 Mordad, down about 0.9%. But this section's domestic story lies elsewhere: the Tether rate on the domestic market was recorded at 193,100 tomans this morning, roughly 700 tomans above the selling rate of the cash dollar.
This is a reversal. Only a few days ago Tether was trading below the cash dollar, and we tracked that gap in earlier reports. When Tether moves ahead of banknotes, it usually means demand for transferring value across the border, or trading demand for crypto, has outpaced demand for physical cash. Because Tether, unlike the banknote market, also trades over the weekend, this rate is effectively the only live currency thermometer during the two closed days. It is worth checking again on Saturday morning.
Iron and steel, cars and building materials
Physical markets are also closed, and the last recorded prices date to 30 July. In steel, 10mm A3 rebar from Arian Foulad at the factory gate was recorded at 69,550 tomans per kilogram. The Iran Mercantile Exchange returns next week with fresh offerings: according to Bourse News, roughly 930,000 tonnes of product will go onto the commodity exchange boards, a sizeable figure that will shape next week's price discovery.
In cars and building materials, no new price was recorded on a closed day. The policy point relevant to both markets is the start of a new phase of fuel consumption management with a cut to the 3,000-toman petrol quota, covered by Donya-e-Eqtesad in its 8 Mordad edition; transport costs, both in the delivered cost of materials and in the running cost of a car, are its direct channel of effect.
The takeaway
Today belonged to oil, not the dollar. The domestic market stayed shut and board prices are still Thursday's numbers, but in the global market the floor under oil has risen 20% in a month, and it is that shift, not the 0.5% wobble in the free-market dollar, that will shape the currency picture over the weeks ahead. If you remember only one thing today, make it this: oil is down 13% from its 23 July peak yet still 20% above where it was a month ago. The ceiling broke, but the floor rose, and for an economy that breathes on oil income, the floor matters more.
What to watch today
- The market reopening on Saturday 10 Mordad (1 August) and how the free-market dollar prices two days of accumulated news.
- The Tether rate through the closure, as the only live currency thermometer.
- The outcome of the Red Sea maritime coalition talks and their effect on cargo insurance costs.
- The OPEC+ decision on halting output target increases.
- The roughly 930,000 tonnes of product offered on the Iran Mercantile Exchange in the week ahead.
- The Sahmino market events calendar for next week's shareholder meetings and scheduled data.
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