Weekly market review, Thursday morning, 1 Mordad 1405 (23 July 2026); the Tehran Stock Exchange is closed for the weekend, but global and parallel markets never stop, and the message of the week that passed is a single word: risk. Brent crude, which began the week near $88, rose about 2 percent this morning toward $96 a barrel; the fresh trigger was renewed regional tensions and a report that a projectile struck a tanker in waters near Saudi Arabia, which pushed the Strait of Hormuz risk premium higher again. Along the same path, spot gold, which had climbed on Wednesday toward about $4,150 (its highest level since 7 July), traded slightly lower this morning near $4,127 and remains at one of its highest levels on record.
This is "what happened," dated and sourced. But why does it matter for an Iranian household? Because the same risk that lifted oil and global gold last week drove the free-market dollar to a record of about 194,000 toman and pushed 18-karat gram gold into an unprecedented 19-million-toman channel. The week ahead also carries a fresh external anchor: the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday 7 Mordad (29 July). In this report we first sum up the week that passed, then look at the week ahead.
Market snapshot (Wednesday 31 Tir close and Thursday 1 Mordad 1405 morning)
| Index / Asset | Value | Change / Status |
|---|
| Brent crude (per barrel) | about $96 | about +2% (Thursday morning) |
| Spot gold (per ounce) | about $4,127 | about -0.2% (week high $4,150) |
| Free-market dollar | about 192,400 toman | Wednesday evening close |
| Exchange Center remittance dollar (sell) | 151,120 toman | about +0.14% |
| Free vs Exchange Center gap | about 41,300 toman | near 27% |
| 18-karat gold (per gram) | about 19,000,000 toman | into the 19-million channel |
| Emami coin | about 189,000,000 toman | above mid-week |
| TEDPIX (Wednesday close) | 4,884,001 points | after ending a red run |
| Bitcoin | about $65,700 | about -0.4% |
Global figures refer to Thursday 1 Mordad morning trading and domestic figures to the last data recorded through the Wednesday 31 Tir 1405 evening close; the domestic market trades thinly over the weekend and its numbers change little until Saturday's reopening.
The week's top headlines
- Per global financial media, Brent crude rose about 2 percent Thursday morning toward $96 a barrel; the main driver was escalating regional tensions and a report that a projectile struck a tanker in waters near Saudi Arabia, reviving concern about disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- In the global gold market, an ounce rose Wednesday toward about $4,150, its highest since 7 July, and traded near $4,127 Thursday morning; safe-haven demand amid regional tensions and anticipation of the Federal Reserve meeting have been the main drivers of this elevated level.
- Domestically, the free-market dollar set a record of about 194,000 toman on Sunday 28 Tir last week and then settled in the 190,000 to 192,000 toman range; 18-karat gram gold entered the 19-million-toman channel for the first time, and the Emami coin climbed toward about 189 million toman.
- On the Tehran Stock Exchange, the main index, after a long downward run, staged three green, rebounding sessions from mid-week and closed Wednesday 31 Tir near 4,884,000 points; a return of demand to the large commodity and banking groups drove the turn.
- In energy, the OPEC+ decision on 5 July to raise output by about 188,000 barrels from August (a fifth consecutive monthly increase) has kept supply pressure alive, but the Strait of Hormuz risk premium overrode it this week and lifted the floor under oil prices.
Oil and the regional and global picture: the number that drove the whole week
The axis of global markets this week was two assets: oil and gold. Brent crude, which traded near $88 the prior week, first rose Wednesday on the Strait of Hormuz risk premium to a more-than-one-month high near $93, and then climbed further Thursday morning toward $96. Today's fresh trigger was renewed regional tensions and a report that a projectile struck a tanker in waters near Saudi Arabia; any sign of a threat to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the passage for a large share of the world's oil, feeds directly into the global price. For a review of how this risk has moved prices in recent days, see the Wednesday 31 Tir midday pulse.
Why is it double-edged for Iran? Costlier oil is a double-edged sword for Iran's economy. On one side, a higher global price can help the country's currency earnings; on the other, the very tension that lifts oil also keeps the risk premium alive in the domestic currency market and strengthens inflation expectations. This is the market's "reality"; which edge of the sword weighs more in the weeks ahead is the "outlook," tied to the continuing path of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran-Oman talks.
On the global gold side, an ounce rose Wednesday toward about $4,150, reaching its highest since 7 July, and stood near $4,127 Thursday morning after a slight dip; gold draws energy from two forces at once: safe-haven demand amid the tensions, and the market's anticipation of next week's Federal Reserve meeting, which is widely expected to hold rates. In Iran's regional trade-settlement corridors, the Turkish lira traded near 47.2 and the Chinese yuan near 6.77 against the dollar; moves in the UAE dirham and the yuan feed directly into the cost of imports.
Gold and coin: the week gram gold entered the 19-million channel
In the gold and coin market, last week was one of the month's fastest. 18-karat gram gold, which had jumped nearly 5 percent into the 19-million-toman channel on Sunday 28 Tir, settled near 19 million toman through the Wednesday 31 Tir evening close, and a mesghal of gold reached about 82.3 million toman. In the coin market, the Emami coin climbed from mid-week toward about 189 million toman. The technical point of the week is that the Emami coin premium (hobab) remains compressed, near one million toman on the latest recorded data; the market pays little extra above the coin's gold value for the coin itself, and the main engine of the rise is the metal itself, not coin enthusiasm.
Why does it matter? The domestic gold price is the product of two variables: the exchange rate and the global ounce. This week both rose together; the dollar went to a record 194,000 toman and the global ounce held above $4,100, and that coincidence pushed gram gold and the coin to unprecedented levels. To understand whether the Emami coin or melted gold better preserves the value of money, the gold price pages are a useful starting point.
Currency: after the 194,000 record, settling near the 192,000 mark
In the currency market, the free-market dollar set a record of about 194,000 toman on Sunday 28 Tir last week, then fell toward about 187,000 toman on Monday and Tuesday, and turned higher again over the last two days of the week to stand near 192,400 toman at the Wednesday 31 Tir evening close. On the official side, the remittance dollar sell rate at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center (the "agreed"/tavafoqi rate) was 151,120 toman; the gap between the free and Exchange Center rates thus reached about 41,300 toman, near 27 percent.
Why does it matter? This week's dollar swing (record, pullback, then a renewed rise) shows how sensitive the currency market is to geopolitical risk. As long as the open Strait of Hormuz file and the Iran-Oman talks lack a clear outcome, hedging demand against inflation expectations does not easily fade, and the multiple-rate gap stays wide. For two plausible scenarios for the dollar, gold and the bourse, read our currency coverage.
Stocks: the week a long red run ended
The TEDPIX began the week extending a long decline, but the tide turned from mid-week: after ending a multi-session red run, the index posted three green, rebounding sessions and closed Wednesday 31 Tir near 4,884,000 points; the over-the-counter IFX index stood near 38,852. Market reports pointed to a return of demand to the large groups (banking, base metals, pharmaceuticals and food).
What is behind the turn? Part of it is the market's technical nature after a prolonged drop; when panic selling is exhausted, value demand returns. But the point of this week is that the bourse's rebound came alongside a rising dollar and gold, not in the shadow of a calm currency; part of the money likely entered commodity and export-oriented shares with an inflationary hedging view. Now, with oil's fresh jump toward $96, eyes at Saturday's reopening will be on the refining and commodity groups.
Crypto: a listless bitcoin
In the crypto market, unlike gold, which drew energy from regional tension, bitcoin did not follow that trigger this week and moved more independently and listlessly; Thursday morning it traded down about 0.4 percent near $65,700, and ether held near the $1,900 area. The Tether rate in the domestic market was roughly level with the free-market dollar, near 192,000 toman. A reminder: global crypto prices are measured in dollars and the toman price embeds the dollar rate, so part of the toman swing in crypto simply reflects the currency's move.
Iron, steel and building materials
In the iron and steel market, factory rebar rates held steady at week's end; for example, 10 mm Aryan Steel rebar (A3) was quoted at about 70,450 toman and 12 mm at about 69,180 toman per kilogram (factory rate, 31 Tir close). This market watches two variables above all: the exchange rate, which sets the finished cost and the export price floor, and the trend in global steel. With the dollar back on a rising track and costlier oil, upward pressure here could increase in the week ahead, though with a lag. In building materials, cement was relatively stable, with Tehran bulk Portland Type 2 quoted at about 4.014 million toman per ton (31 Tir close); the main driver here is seasonal construction demand and energy costs.
Cars: a direct function of the exchange rate
In the car market, after the jumps that tracked the currency's record last week, the dollar's return to a rising track could again make the market margin (the gap between factory and open-market prices) sensitive. Meanwhile Iran Khodro has announced a fresh round of instant sales. In today's inflationary environment, the open-market car price remains a direct function of the exchange rate.
The takeaway
The week's verdict is clear: the main winners this week were hard assets, not cash. Global gold held at a record, domestic gram gold entered the 19-million channel, oil jumped toward $96, and the dollar settled near the 192,000 mark after a 194,000 record; even the bourse ended a red run with a few green sessions. The one thing to remember is that a single thread ran through all these moves: the Strait of Hormuz risk premium. As long as that risk is high, oil stays expensive and domestic inflation expectations stay alive; so the most important "price" this week was neither the dollar nor the coin, but the barrel of oil and the file standing behind it.
What does the week ahead hold?
- Bourse reopening (Saturday 3 Mordad): the floor's reaction to the oil jump and the gold record; whether the recent three-session rebound and real money stay in the market or retreat as the excitement fades.
- Federal Reserve meeting (Wednesday 7 Mordad / 29 July): the week's most important global event for gold and the dollar; the market widely expects the US policy rate to hold at its current range, and the statement's tone will be the next anchor for the global ounce.
- Oil and the Strait of Hormuz: whether Brent holds above $95 or retreats as risk cools, and any fresh news from the Iran-Oman talks.
- The dollar and domestic gold: whether the free-market dollar rises above the 192,000-toman mark or consolidates in this range, and the effect on gram gold and the coin.
- For upcoming events, see the Sahmino economic calendar.
This report is a news review of market conditions, not buy or sell advice. Figures are timed and sourced and change little during thinly traded holidays.
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