Iran's Official Exchange-Centre Dollar Stayed About 93,000 Tomans Cheaper Than the Free Market Today; the Services-FX Quota Turns That Gap Into an Opportunity (Saturday, October 3, 2026)

Tehran's free market dollar reached 268,500 tomans on Saturday, October 3, 2026 (Mehr 11, 1405), while the Exchange Centre's "havaleh" dollar held at just 175,228 tomans at the same hour; a gap of about 93,272 tomans per dollar, or roughly 53 percent. For most people that gap is just a number on a prices page. But for anyone eligible for Iran's "services foreign exchange" (ارز خدماتی) quota, a student abroad, a patient needing treatment, or a traveler to a distant destination, that same gap means real, legal savings, and the Central Bank has just multiplied the quota tenfold.

Background

Iran has run several simultaneous dollar rates for years: a free market rate set in street exchange shops and apps, and the Exchange Centre's "havaleh" rate, which the Central Bank offers for approved uses (essential imports, and "services FX" for personal needs such as study, medical treatment and travel). Sahmino explained this system earlier in "Iran's Multiple Exchange Rates: Why Is There More Than One Dollar Price?". Until the end of Shahrivar (late September 2026), the services-FX quota was capped at just 1,000 dollars per applicant, an amount monetary analysts told Mehr News (October 1, 2026) did not even cover one term's tuition or one round of treatment, pushing the rest of the need back onto the free market and informal exchangers.

To use the quota, an eligible applicant presents approved documents, a university admission letter, a certified treatment referral, or a travel ticket and visa, at an authorized bank's foreign-currency branch. Once the paperwork clears, the bank credits or hands over the dollars at the Exchange Centre's rate, a channel entirely separate from the free market's queues.

By the Numbers

• Free market dollar: 268,500 tomans, per Sahmino's live feed at 18:19 Tehran time today; Tgju.org logged 268,505 tomans at 17:55 and Donya-e-Eqtesad reported 268,580 tomans in a dispatch filed at 16:12.
• Exchange Centre "havaleh" dollar (sell): 175,228 tomans, per Sahmino (17:17) and Donya-e-Eqtesad (16:12 dispatch, the same figure).
• The gap: 93,272 tomans per dollar, about 53 percent of the official rate (Sahmino's own calculation from the two figures above).
• Over the past month (September 3 to October 1), the free market dollar rose from 221,060 to 258,465 tomans, up 16.9 percent, while the Exchange Centre rate rose only from 160,022 to 174,182 tomans, up 8.9 percent, roughly half the free market's pace (Sahmino data).
• The services-FX quota rose tenfold as of October 1, 2026 (9 Mehr): from 1,000 to 10,000 dollars per eligible applicant, alongside a 2 billion dollar Central Bank supply into the market (per Mehr News Agency, citing monetary and banking analysts, October 1, 2026).

Drivers

Iran's Central Bank said in an official statement on Friday, October 2, 2026, that the current exchange rate does not fully match the economy's fundamentals, and attributed much of the gap to "heightened uncertainty and psychological pressure" rather than an actual currency shortage, the direct cause stated by the Central Bank itself, not a guess from Sahmino. At the same time, gold, coins and Tether all jumped in the domestic market: Donya-e-Eqtesad reported 18-karat gold reaching 26,377,100 tomans and the Emami coin reaching 270,800,000 tomans, even as global spot gold fell 24 dollars the same day, a sign the domestic jump is being driven by the rial's slide, not world prices. The mechanism is simple: when households worry about the rial's purchasing power, they shift into several alternative assets (dollars, gold, coins, Tether) at once, and that simultaneous demand is exactly what widens the free market's gap over the official rate.

Outlook

The previous round shows this policy alone is no guarantee of success: per Mehr News, an earlier 500 million dollar market-maker supply drew only about 20 million dollars in uptake, near 4 percent, because applicants feared tax bureaucracy and the burden of proving use, and preferred the free market instead. Analysts told Mehr that the new quota's lasting success depends on two things: how fast and transparently banks vet applicants' documents at their FX branches, and keeping the allocated rate close to the market average so it does not become a source of rent-seeking. Until underlying drivers, liquidity growth and the chronic budget deficit, are addressed, even a 10,000 dollar quota is more of a temporary relief than a structural fix.

Bottom Line

For anyone eligible for the services-FX quota, the takeaway is clear: at today's gap, drawing dollars from a bank's FX branch instead of the free market means saving up to 93,272 tomans per dollar; across the full 10,000 dollar quota, that could reach roughly 932,720,000 tomans (Sahmino's own calculation from the two rates above, not a figure the Central Bank guarantees). Still, unless the Central Bank enters the market with fresh supply, the free market dollar will likely stay above 260,000 tomans through next week as well; a close below 240,000 tomans would break that call.

What to Watch

• Does uptake of the new 10,000 dollar quota beat the previous round's roughly 4 percent?
• Does the gap between the free market and Exchange Centre dollar widen or narrow in the coming weeks?
• Does the Central Bank announce fresh FX supply to contain the free market?

Glossary

• Services FX (ارز خدماتی): the foreign-currency quota the Central Bank grants eligible applicants for approved personal uses (study, medical treatment, travel) at a rate close to the Exchange Centre, not the free market.
• Exchange Centre "havaleh" rate: the official buy/sell rate the Central Bank sets and supplies for approved uses, usually below the free market rate.
• Premium (حباب): the price gap between an asset's market rate and its intrinsic value or official rate.

Track these two rates live on Sahmino's free market dollar and Exchange Centre dollar price pages.