Articles
Neutral, dated analysis and explainers across Iran’s markets.
The iPhone 18 Pro Equals About 17 Months of Iran's 1405 Minimum Base Wage, and 11.5 Grams of Gold; 94% of Its One-Year Rial Price Rise Was the Exchange Rate (Thursday, 10 September 2026)
At Apple's official 1,199 dollars and the free-market dollar of 232,700 tomans recorded on 9 September 2026, the 256GB iPhone 18 Pro converts to 278.9 million tomans: about 16.8 months of Iran's 1405 minimum base wage, roughly 3,220 working hours, and 11.5 grams of 18-karat gold. Of its 168 million toman one-year rise, about 94% came from the exchange rate and about 6% from Apple's pricing decision.
US Producer Inflation Cooled to 4.7% in July, Down From 5.5% in June, But the 10-Year Treasury Yield Stayed High (Sunday, August 16, 2026)
US producer prices (PPI) rose 4.7% year over year in July, down from 5.5% in June and softer than economists expected; a day earlier, consumer inflation had already come in calmer than feared. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield stayed elevated through Friday, August 14, a gap that keeps the path of the dollar and global gold, and from there Tehran's coin and gold prices, unsettled.
Inflation at 83.9 Percent Has Outrun Money Growth of 53.3 Percent; the 30.6 Point Gap the Printing Press Did Not Create (Friday, 31 July 2026)
Iran's broad money reached about 15,581 thousand billion tomans at the end of 1404 (March 2026), growing about 53.3 percent. Yet year-on-year inflation in Tir 1405 (July 2026) stood near 83.9 percent, roughly 30.6 points ahead of money growth. The printing press did not create that gap: velocity, inflation expectations and the nearly 39,600 toman dollar spread on 30 July 2026 did. New money also travels through markets in sequence, not all at once.
The Ceasefire Nobody Signed: Gold Fell 3.3% and the Dollar 1.8% on a Day the Global Ounce Did Not Move at All (Saturday, 25 July 2026)
On Saturday, 25 July 2026 (3 Mordad 1405), 18 karat gold fell 3.29%, the Emami coin 2.18% and the free market dollar 1.80% in Iran. Yet the global gold ounce did not move at all, because world markets were closed for the weekend. That makes the entire decline a domestic bet on a story no side has officially confirmed: a reported 10 day ceasefire proposal. Sahmino measures the gap between what the market priced and what is actually verified. This analysis is not buy or sell advice.
Zarif's Foreign Affairs Vision and Iran's Markets: Two Scenarios for the Dollar, Gold, and Stocks
In a Foreign Affairs essay, former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif argues that West Asia's own states should build the region's security and economic order. Sahmino lays out his case, the serious criticism of it, and the likely consequences for the dollar, gold, and the bourse under two scenarios, de-escalation and continued war, with a look at the July 21, 2026 market where the free-market dollar trades near 190,000 tomans.
Iran 2026 in the Mirror of The Economist: Civilizational Weight Against Economic Reality
The Economist's annual "The World Ahead 2026" special does not put Iran on the cover, yet Tehran recurs through its pages: a player with real geographic and civilizational weight, but an economy that constrains its ability to "enter the game." With the free-market dollar near 187,700 tomans, point-to-point inflation close to 88 percent, and the IMF projecting a 6.1 percent contraction for 2026, Sahmino measures the multipolar narrative against the numbers (21 July 2026).
Iran Kicks Off $2bn Industrial FX Allocation; Central Bank Adds $4.5bn to Reserves, Vows No Return to Subsidized Rate (Monday, July 6, 2026)
Iran's central bank governor says the country's foreign currency reserves grew by $4.5 billion during the recent war months, and that a first $2 billion phase of industrial FX allocation began Saturday, July 4. Governor Hemmati stressed the bank will not revive the old subsidized "preferential rate" system. The move coincides with revenue from a temporary US license letting Iran sell oil for dollars.
From Barter to an "Offshore Rial": Iran Seeks to Formalize Rial Afghani Trade Settlement (Saturday, July 4, 2026)
The head of the Iran Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce says Iran's goal is to turn the traditional rial afghani barter system into a formal banking platform, reducing exporters' reliance on third currencies. Under the latest official Afghan data (November 2024), Afghanistan exported only about $30 million worth of goods to Iran while importing roughly $1.8 billion from it, an imbalance the central bank's new "offshore rial" tool aims to address.
US 60-Day Oil Waiver for Iran: Up to $3.06 Billion in Possible FX Revenue Through August 21, 2026
The US Treasury's General License X, issued June 22, 2026, allows Iran to sell crude oil, petrochemical and petroleum products for US dollars, for the first time in over four decades, through August 21, 2026. Newsweek's analysis puts the potential revenue at up to $3.06 billion over the 60-day window.
