In Sahmino's Signal Scorecard, Settled Bearish Claims Reached Their Level 15.4% of the Time in a Rising, Low-Volatility Market Against 87.7% for Bullish Ones; the Bearish MACD Cross Was Lowest at 10 Hits Out of 189 (Wednesday, 16 September 2026)

One of the oldest rules in technical analysis says that when MACD crosses below its signal line, it is time to sell. In our own record, only ten of one hundred and eighty nine bearish MACD claims reached their level. In the same weather, bullish claims hit eighty seven point seven percent and bearish ones fifteen point four. Every claim carries a target, and a level that proves it wrong if touched first. All five bearish families stayed below thirty percent, and sector rotation scored none at all. Over the same days, the bullish families stood between sixty eight and one hundred percent. The same MACD answered ninety one percent upward, and five point three percent downward. So what was measured was the direction of the market, not the intelligence of the tool. This scorecard rests on two thousand four hundred and nine settled claims. One detector scored sixty eight percent in rising weather and seventeen in falling weather. That is why averaging two kinds of weather describes neither one of them. Always read a hit rate together with its sample size and its weather. Today's takeaway is simple: never read a signal without its weather. Does that number tell you about MACD, or about the weather of the market?