Iran Market Pulse: Monday Morning, 3 August 2026; Brent Slid Into the 83 Dollar Range Before Today's Talks Begin

The global oil market produced one big number overnight and put it on the table ahead of every other market: at 07:38 this morning, Monday 12 Mordad 1405 (3 August 2026), a barrel of Brent crude traded at 83 dollars and 38 cents, about 5 percent below the previous close. The trigger was a single sentence: on the evening of Sunday 11 Mordad (2 August), Donald Trump said that on the Strait of Hormuz "there is a deal" and that nuclear talks with Iran would begin on Monday afternoon. Yet in those same minutes, spot gold moved up 0.56 percent. Two global boards, two opposite directions, and a morning in which the Tehran Stock Exchange has not yet opened.

Today's snapshot

Asset	Level	Change	As of
Brent crude	83 dollars 38 cents	down 5.46%	07:38, Mon 12 Mordad / 3 Aug
Spot gold	4,067 dollars 94 cents	up 0.56%	07:39, Mon 12 Mordad / 3 Aug
Free-market dollar (ask)	191,150 tomans	near yesterday's close	08:05, Mon 12 Mordad / 3 Aug
Exchange Center remittance dollar (ask)	153,337 tomans	up 0.24%	08:05, Mon 12 Mordad / 3 Aug
18 karat gold, per gram	18,330,500 tomans	unchanged vs yesterday's close	08:07, Mon 12 Mordad / 3 Aug
Emami coin	183,990,000 tomans	down 2.18%	close, Sun 11 Mordad / 2 Aug
Tether	192,611 tomans	above the cash dollar	08:05, Mon 12 Mordad / 3 Aug
Bitcoin	62,920 dollars	down 0.90% in 24 hours	08:06, Mon 12 Mordad / 3 Aug
TEDPIX (headline index)	5,154,057 points	up 1.96%	close, Sun 11 Mordad / 2 Aug
Equal-weight index	1,461,309 points	up 1.51%	close, Sun 11 Mordad / 2 Aug
Dollar index (DXY)	99.72	down 0.20%	3 August 2026

Today's headlines

• Trump told reporters on Sunday 11 Mordad (2 August) that on the Strait of Hormuz "there is a deal" and that nuclear talks with Iran would begin on Monday afternoon; he added that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar had asked him to cancel the planned strike (per Al Jazeera, carried by Eghtesad Online, 11 Mordad).
• Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on the evening of 11 Mordad that the understanding with Oman on a new "traffic separation scheme" is "a necessary condition but not a sufficient one" and does not mean the Strait of Hormuz reopens; the same day, Foreign Minister Araghchi told the cabinet that these talks are in their final stages (Khabar Online, citing IRNA, 11 Mordad).
• At its annual general meeting on 11 Mordad, Mobarakeh Steel reported net profit for 1404 of 100 thousand billion tomans and consolidated group profit of 103 thousand billion tomans, and said forgone profit from energy restrictions had reached 14 thousand billion tomans (EcoIran, 11 Mordad).
• According to the head of the logistics office at Iran's Trade Development Organization, a container that previously shipped from China to Iran for about 3,000 dollars by sea now costs about 12,000 dollars by road and about 9,500 dollars by rail (Donya-e-Eqtesad, 12 Mordad).
• Retail investors were net buyers of 201 billion tomans of Tehran-listed exchange traded funds in the 11 Mordad session, but the breakdown shows they pulled 1,270 billion tomans out of fixed-income funds and moved that money into equity and commodity funds (Securities and Exchange Organization research management, reported by Eghtesad Online, 11 Mordad).

Regional and global backdrop: the oil that fell and the gold that did not

Brent readings differ slightly by the moment of measurement, and each figure should be read with its timestamp. Sahmino's price feed recorded Brent at 83.38 dollars, down 5.46 percent, at 07:38 today; Trading Economics reported 83.34 dollars, down 5.22 percent, on the same date; and Donya-e-Eqtesad, citing price providers before dawn today, put Brent at 83.77 dollars (down 4.73 percent) and West Texas Intermediate at 80.64 dollars (down 4.76 percent), adding that at the peak of the overnight swing the drop exceeded 6 percent. The cautious summary: Brent in the 83 dollar range, with an overnight fall of roughly 5 percent.

The mechanism is clear. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one fifth of world oil and gas trade, and much of oil's one-month gain was a risk premium on that passage staying closed. When the US president announces a cancelled strike and the start of talks, the market gives part of that premium back. Giving it back is not erasing it: on Trading Economics data for 3 August 2026, Brent despite this slide is still 15.76 percent above a month ago and 21.20 percent above the same period last year. At the same time, the major OPEC+ producers approved another modest quota increase, completing the restoration of the output cuts introduced in 2023, which is an additional supply pressure on price.

Gold, however, is reading a different number. Spot gold stood at 4,067 dollars and 94 cents at 07:39 today, up 0.56 percent, and Trading Economics recorded 4,068.07 dollars on the same date, up 0.62 percent from 4,042.97 the previous day. Gold's decisive variable today is not oil but the dollar: the dollar index was at 99.72 on 3 August, down 0.20 percent, a fifth consecutive decline, after Tokyo and Washington formally confirmed a coordinated yen-buying intervention, with Bank of Japan data suggesting as much as 58.97 billion dollars was spent on Thursday. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged last week, three officials dissented, and markets now price about a 68 percent chance of a 25 basis point increase in September. So oil prices the physical supply risk while gold prices the path of the dollar and interest rates, and that is why the two boards moved in opposite directions today. Even so, gold remains 2.32 percent below where it was a month ago and 20.56 percent above a year ago, and it is well short of its 5,608 dollar record of January 2026.

In the neighbourhood, the Tier-1 rates moved too. The dollar held steady in Baghdad and rose in Erbil, with 100 dollars trading at about 152,000 dinars (Shafaq News, 12 Mordad); that rate matters directly for Iran's non-oil trade through the Kurdistan Region corridor. In Tehran, 100 Iraqi dinars sold at 12,550 tomans, one UAE dirham at 51,680 tomans and one Turkish lira at 4,080 tomans (Alanchand, 08:05 today); the dirham is the main channel for imports via Dubai and the lira the channel for overland trade with Türkiye. One warning sits on the same board: before dawn today an explosion was reported near an oil tanker some 20 miles north east of the Omani port of Khasab (Donya-e-Eqtesad, citing ISNA and UKMTO, 12 Mordad), so the de-escalation is not uniform. A sharp fall in sulfur transiting the Strait of Hormuz has also pushed global sulfur prices higher (Shafaq News, 12 Mordad).

Currency: a gap that opens and closes with tension

In Tehran's currency market at 08:05 this morning, Monday 12 Mordad, the free-market dollar was bid at 189,250 tomans and offered at 191,150 tomans (Alanchand); Arzdigital put the reference dollar rate at 190,969 tomans in the same minute, and the gold and currency information network reported 191,000 tomans before dawn today. Three sources, one range. The larger move came on Sunday 11 Mordad: according to Donya-e-Eqtesad, the cash dollar fell 6,000 tomans to 187,000 tomans, 3.1 percent below Saturday, after the dollar had pushed above 193,000 tomans on Saturday 10 Mordad. The difference between the 187,000 and 191,000 figures comes from the type of rate reported, cash banknote versus reference rate, not from a contradiction in the data.

On the other side of the board, the Exchange Center remittance dollar stood at 1,533,375 rials this morning, about 153,337 tomans on the ask, only 0.24 percent higher. That difference in tempo is the most important lesson in the currency market today: the remittance rate is administered and moves in fractions of a percent, so the entire swing of war and negotiation risk lands on the free rate. The result is a gap that widens as tension escalates and closes as it eases. Today the gap between the two rates is about 25 percent. Bourse News calculated it at 26 percent on 11 Mordad, using a free rate of 192,000 tomans and a remittance rate of 152,000 tomans, and added that since the start of 1404 the narrowest recorded gap has been 3 percent, the widest 82 percent and the period average 33 percent. So today's gap is neither a record nor a crisis; it is below the average of the past year and a half and narrowing.

Other free-market rates this morning (Alanchand, 08:05 Monday 12 Mordad): the euro at 220,400 tomans, the pound at 254,800 tomans and the Chinese yuan at 28,400 tomans on the ask.

Gold and coin: the board has not moved yet

A gram of 18 karat gold stood at 183,305,000 rials at 08:07 today, that is 18,330,500 tomans, and has recorded no change against yesterday's close. On Sunday 11 Mordad, however, the gram fell about 2 percent (that day's high was 18,699,600 tomans), and Donya-e-Eqtesad put the drop at 2.5 percent; the difference between those two figures comes from the calculation basis, and both point the same way. A mesghal of gold was 79,395,000 tomans (down 2.03 percent) and 24 karat gold 24,440,400 tomans (down 2 percent).

The mechanism is simple: the rial price of gold is the global ounce multiplied by the dollar rate. Yesterday the ounce was roughly flat while the dollar fell about 3 percent, so domestic gold dropped. This morning the reverse is forming, with the ounce up and the dollar roughly flat, but the domestic board has not priced it yet.

In the coin market, these were the closes on Sunday 11 Mordad: the Emami coin at 183,990,000 tomans, down 4,020,000 tomans (2.18 percent); the Bahar Azadi at 179,925,000 tomans (down 2.05 percent); the half coin at 94,000,000 tomans (down 1.6 percent); the quarter coin at 52,500,000 tomans (down 1.9 percent); and the gram coin at 27,000,000 tomans (down 1.85 percent). The premium (hobab) on the Emami coin came to 2,117,000 tomans, about 1.2 percent of its intrinsic value, while the premium on the quarter coin is 7,043,000 tomans; the small denominations remain the most expensive corner of this market.

The historical anchor is worth noting. On TGJU data for 12 Mordad, a gram of 18 karat gold is almost unchanged against a week ago (down 0.05 percent) and 7.01 percent below its level three months ago, but 138.91 percent above 12 Mordad 1404, when it was 7,672,400 tomans. In other words, every gram bought a year ago is worth about 10,658,100 tomans more today. Globally, the World Gold Council reported that bar and coin demand fell to 307 tonnes in the second quarter, having exceeded 400 tonnes in each of the two preceding quarters, while central bank buying came to 289 tonnes, an annualized rate of about 700 tonnes (Eghtesad Online, 11 Mordad).

Stocks: a session that closed 99,000 points higher

The Tehran Stock Exchange trades today from 09:00 to 12:30. The previous session, Sunday 11 Mordad, was one of the strongest in recent weeks: on Sahmino's recorded data, the headline index closed at 5,154,057 points, up 99,271 points or 1.96 percent, and the equal-weight index rose 1.51 percent to 1,461,309 points. The Farabourse headline index gained 1.71 percent to 41,635 points. Sunday was the first session in which the headline index, after lagging for four sessions, outpaced the equal-weight index.

Trade value on the bourse board in that session was about 25,700 billion tomans across 549,437 trades, and Sena reported that retail trade value in shares and equity funds passed 23 thousand billion tomans. Sena also reported that the indices of 38 industries rose in line with the market gauges, meaning yesterday's gain was broad rather than carried by a handful of large names. Retail investors were net buyers across the symbols tracked.

The most interesting part is the composition of the money. Trade value in exchange traded funds was 45.5 thousand billion tomans and retail net buying was a positive 201 billion tomans, but that net figure hides a bigger reshuffle: retail investors pulled 1,270 billion tomans out of fixed-income funds and put 870 billion tomans into equity and mixed funds and 601 billion tomans into commodity funds. Money left the risk-free leg and moved into risk assets. In the same vein, Sena's review of the week to 9 Mordad reported that gold funds topped the return table with an average return of 18 percent, with silver and saffron funds second and third.

On Codal, five refiners, Shapna, Shavan, Shraz, Shatran and Shabriz, clarified on 11 Mordad that the competent authorities had issued no new directive on the pricing of refinery feedstock and products (Sena, 11 Mordad). On a day when Brent has fallen about 5 percent, that disclosure matters doubly for the refining group.

Crypto: a board reading the same macro

In the crypto market at 08:06 this morning, Bitcoin traded at 62,920 dollars, down 0.90 percent over 24 hours, and Ethereum at 1,860 dollars and 61 cents, down 0.94 percent (CoinGecko); Alanchand showed Bitcoin at 62,992 dollars and Ethereum at 1,862 dollars in the same minute. Two sources, one picture.

Tether in Tehran was 192,611 tomans, roughly 0.8 percent above the cash dollar at the same hour. On Sunday, according to Donya-e-Eqtesad, Tether had fallen from above 195,000 tomans to around 189,000 tomans. The Tether premium over cash is the most readable gauge of genuine dollar demand in the domestic market, and this morning that premium is small, meaning precautionary demand has not returned. Note also that the toman price of any crypto asset embeds the dollar rate, so a Bitcoin flat in dollars can still move up and down in tomans. For comparison, on TGJU data for 12 Mordad, Bitcoin is down 0.42 percent over the past month while a gram of 18 karat gold is up 3.39 percent.

Iron and steel: a quiet board, a restless cost base

Rebar prices in the 11 Mordad recording were subdued: 10 millimetre A3 rebar from Arian Foulad ex-works at 70,450 tomans and A2 of the same size at 70,360 tomans per kilogram, 12 millimetre rebar at 69,180 tomans in both grades, and 14 millimetre A3 rebar at 69,090 tomans.

On the Iran Mercantile Exchange, however, volumes were heavy. Kalakhabar reported that in today's 12 Mordad trading the industrial hall hosted 413,000 tonnes of iron ore, 114,250 tonnes of sponge iron and 6,630 tonnes of steel; the open auction hall recorded 727,500 tonnes of iron ore, and the export hall 18,995 tonnes of bitumen, 11,650 tonnes of cement and 6,000 tonnes of sulfur.

The main driver of this industry, though, is not the global steel price but energy and logistics costs. At its 11 Mordad meeting, Mobarakeh Steel described the rise in the gas price from about 2,800 tomans to 11,200 tomans in Esfand 1403 and 16,500 tomans in Dey as a principal pressure on profitability, while group crude steel output grew 8.3 percent in 1404. On the logistics side, Donya-e-Eqtesad reported on 12 Mordad that higher risk has added between 1,500 and 3,000 dollars to the shipping cost of each container, and that total port costs at Bandar Abbas per consignment have reached about 50 to 60 million tomans, a rise of 50 to 100 percent. The Central Insurance authority also permitted war-risk cover for businesses with a liability ceiling of 50 percent of the insured capital (12 Mordad).

Cars: a market whose margin has shrunk

The car market's slump continues. According to the Statistical Center of Iran, as carried by Donya-e-Eqtesad on 12 Mordad, monthly car-purchase inflation turned negative in Tir while the cost of running a car rose, a combination that pushes the car further away from its role as a quasi-asset.

Today's telling figure comes from Saeed Motamani, former head of the Tehran car dealers' union, who told the newspaper Iran (carried by Khabar Online, 12 Mordad) that a car such as the Dena, invoiced ex-works at about 2,550 million tomans, trades in the market at about 2,800 million tomans, a market margin of roughly 250 million tomans or close to 10 percent. He added that in some new offering rounds demand has fallen by as much as 50 percent, and that "the era of 70 to 100 percent gains in the car market is over." He also named the structural reason: the car's low liquidity against the high liquidity of the dollar and the coin.

Materials: cement in high volume, prices little changed

In the 11 Mordad recording, a tonne of bulk type 2 Portland cement was 3,937,000 tomans from Tehran Cement and 3,593,000 tomans from Abyek Cement; the 50 kilogram bag of the same product was 291,000 tomans in Tehran, 289,000 tomans at Abyek and 260,000 tomans at Saveh.

The demand side is busy: the Iran Mercantile Exchange cement hall recorded 915,170 tonnes traded on 12 Mordad, and Kalakhabar reported that in the week to 9 Mordad the provinces of Tehran with 103,050 tonnes, Isfahan with 81,015 tonnes and Markazi with 64,900 tonnes led cement purchases on the exchange, with 4,546 buyers active in that market in total.

The takeaway

Today's verdict is clear: this is a morning of "negotiation discount," not a morning of calm. Oil handed back about 5 percent of the Hormuz risk premium, the free-market dollar is close to 2,000 tomans below Saturday's 193,000 toman peak, and domestic gold has yet to recover yesterday's retreat even as the global ounce has risen. Why does it matter? Because the whole discount rests on an unconfirmed sentence: Tehran has not confirmed that any deal on the Strait of Hormuz exists, and the foreign ministry spokesman has said plainly that the understanding with Oman is not a sufficient condition. The one thing to remember: every number on the board today is the price of a probability, not the price of a fact.

What to watch today

• This afternoon, Monday 12 Mordad (3 August): the announced start of a new round of Iran-US talks, per the US president on 11 Mordad.
• The Iran-Oman talks on the maritime "traffic separation scheme," which the foreign minister says are in their final stages.
• The 09:00 to 12:30 Tehran Stock Exchange session and the reaction of the refining and metals groups to Brent's roughly 5 percent fall.
• Today's Iran Mercantile Exchange offerings, particularly the industrial and cement halls.
• The week of US labour market data, with Friday's key report and its effect on Federal Reserve rate expectations.
• The block offering of a 65.05 percent controlling stake in Movalled Niroogahi Tejarat Fars on 24 Mordad in the Farabourse second market (Sena, 11 Mordad). Follow upcoming events in the Sahmino calendar.

Every figure in this report carries its reference time and date, and market rates change through the day. The analytical passages are cautious observations, not buy or sell advice.