Midday market update, Thursday 23 July 2026 (1 Mordad 1405); the Tehran Stock Exchange is closed for the weekend, so today's only live board is the global market. The fresh news at midday is a divergence: two assets that rose together this morning have now split apart. Brent crude, which opened the week near $88 and cleared $94 on Wednesday, held around $96.29 a barrel by midday today, up about 2%, and pushed higher. Spot gold, by contrast, had climbed to a record near $4,150 on Wednesday (its highest since 7 July), but eased about 0.7% at midday to around $4,109 an ounce.
The message of this divergence is clear: the risk premium that has lifted markets this week now sits more in the oil barrel than in the gold ounce. Gold is catching its breath ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting, while oil is still standing on concern about the security of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. That is the "what happened," dated and sourced; below we open up both global drivers and then the domestic market, which is thin over the weekend and essentially frozen on Wednesday's close. For the live figure, see the Brent crude oil board on Sahmino.
Market snapshot (midday, Thursday 23 July 2026)
| Index / asset | Value | Change / status |
|---|
| Brent crude (per barrel) | $96.29 | about +2.1% (Thursday midday) |
| Spot gold (per ounce) | around $4,109 | about 0.7% down (off the $4,150 record) |
| Free-market dollar | around 192,400 tomans | Wednesday evening close (market closed) |
| Exchange Center transfer dollar (sell) | 151,368 tomans | about +0.16% (Thursday morning) |
| Free vs Exchange Center gap | about 41,000 tomans | near 27% |
| 18-karat gold (per gram) | around 19,000,000 tomans | Wednesday close (market closed) |
| Emami coin | around 189,000,000 tomans | Wednesday close |
| Bitcoin | around $66,000 | little changed (Thursday midday) |
| TEDPIX (total index) | 4,884,001 units | Wednesday 22 July close (closed today) |
Global figures refer to midday trading on Thursday 23 July 2026; domestic figures refer to the last recorded data through the Wednesday 22 July evening close. The domestic market is thin over the weekend and its numbers do not change materially until the Saturday reopening.
Today's headlines
- Per global financial press, Brent crude held around $96.29 a barrel by Thursday midday, up about 2%, extending its climb; the main driver is continued concern about the security of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the region's sea lanes.
- In the global gold market, after setting a record near $4,150 on Wednesday (its highest since 7 July), spot gold eased about 0.7% at midday Thursday to around $4,109; the market has turned cautious ahead of the Fed meeting.
- The US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday 29 July; the market widely expects rates to be held in the current range, and the tone of the statement will be the next anchor for global gold.
- In the currency market, the sell rate for the transfer dollar at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center rose about 0.16% this morning to 151,368 tomans; its gap with the free-market dollar (around 192,000 tomans) is near 41,000 tomans, about 27%.
- In energy, OPEC+'s 5 July decision to raise output by about 188,000 barrels a day from August (a fifth straight monthly increase) remains a supply cushion against the price jump, but so far the geopolitical risk premium has overridden it and kept a floor under oil.
Oil: the number that led at midday
The axis of today's live board was oil. Brent crude, which opened the week near $88 and on Wednesday jumped almost 4% past $94 a barrel (its highest since around early June), stood at about $96.29 a barrel by midday Thursday after another leg up. The main driver is the same one that has led the market all week: concern about the security of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the region's sea lanes, a passage through which a large share of the world's oil moves, so any sign of a threat to traffic there sits directly on the global price.
Why is it double-edged for Iran? Costlier oil is a double-edged sword for Iran's economy. On one hand, a higher global price can help the country's foreign-currency revenue; on the other, the same tension that lifts oil keeps the risk premium alive in the domestic currency market and strengthens inflation expectations. That is the market "fact"; which edge of the sword weighs more in the weeks ahead is "outlook," tied to how regional tensions unfold. The technical point today is that, unlike recent weeks, oil and gold did not move in the same direction; that split shows the global market is pricing the risk premium into energy more than anywhere else.
Global gold: a breather before the Fed
On the other side of the divergence, gold paused. The ounce, which had risen to a record near $4,150 on Wednesday and its highest since 7 July, eased about 0.7% at midday Thursday to around $4,109. This pullback is not a collapse but a pause: gold draws energy from two forces at once, safe-haven demand amid the tensions, and the market's wait for next week's Fed meeting. As that meeting nears, some short-term buyers take profit and gold slips a little from its record, while still standing on one of its highest levels ever.
Why it matters: the domestic gold price is the product of two variables, the exchange rate and the global ounce. This week both rose together and lifted gram gold and coins to unprecedented levels. Now, if today's pullback in the ounce continues, it could ease some of the pressure on domestic gold at the Saturday reopening, provided the dollar also stays calm. To follow the domestic figures, see the gold and coin board on Sahmino.
Currency: market closed, official-free gap still wide
In the currency market, cash trading is thin over the weekend and the free-market dollar has held on Wednesday's evening close, around 192,400 tomans; that figure is the reference until the market reopens in the days ahead. On the official side, though, the board was live: the sell rate for the transfer dollar at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center rose about 0.16% this morning to 151,368 tomans, with the buy rate at 150,006 tomans. The gap between the free rate and the Exchange Center transfer rate thus remains about 41,000 tomans, near 27%.
Why it matters: this durable multi-rate gap shows the currency market has stayed sensitive to geopolitical risk and that hedging demand against inflation expectations does not switch off easily. As long as the open file of regional tensions reaches no clear resolution, this gap stays wide.
Domestic gold and coins: frozen on Wednesday's close
In the gold and coin market, the domestic numbers, like the currency, are frozen on Wednesday's close. Per the last recorded data, each gram of 18-karat gold is around 19 million tomans and a mesghal of gold about 82.3 million tomans. The Emami coin sits around 189 million tomans, and the week's technical point still holds: the Emami coin premium is compressed, around one million tomans, meaning the market pays little extra for the coin above the value of its gold, and the main engine of the rise has been the metal itself, not coin excitement. If today's pullback in the global ounce settles in, the first place its effect shows at the Saturday reopening is this gram gold and the coins.
Crypto: apart from the oil-and-gold wave
In the crypto market, bitcoin did not follow the geopolitical driver this week and moved more independently; at midday Thursday it traded around $66,000 and little changed, and ether stayed near the $1,900 area. The Tether rate in the domestic market was roughly level with the free-market dollar, around 192,000 tomans. A reminder: global crypto prices are measured in dollars and the toman price embeds the dollar rate, so part of the toman swing in crypto simply reflects the currency's move, not crypto itself.
Bourse: closed, but with a question for Saturday
The Tehran Stock Exchange total index (TEDPIX) is closed today, and its last figure, the Wednesday 22 July close around 4,884,000 units, remains the reference. The market ended a long red run with three green sessions last week, and now reaches the Saturday reopening with two fresh global cues: costlier oil and slightly cooler global gold. Oil above $96 could steer attention at the reopening toward the refining, commodity, and export-oriented groups, since part of the money in recent weeks flowed into those shares with an inflation-hedge view. Whether the three-session rebound holds or gives back as the excitement fades is the trading floor's main question for Saturday.
Steel, cars, and building materials: awaiting the reopening
In the iron and steel market, weekend trading is thin and factory rebar prices are unchanged on the Wednesday close; this market watches two variables above all, the exchange rate that sets the finished cost and the export price floor, and the trend in global steel. With costlier oil and the dollar staying at high levels, upward pressure here could build in the week ahead, though with a lag. In the car market, prices remain a direct function of the exchange rate in the current inflationary setting, and with the dollar holding near 192,000 tomans, the market margin (the gap between factory and open-market prices) stays sensitive. In building materials, cement prices are relatively stable, driven mainly by seasonal construction demand and energy costs.
Regional and global view
In the regional trade-settlement corridors for Iran, the Turkish lira traded around 47.23 and the Chinese yuan near 6.77 against the dollar at midday today; swings in these two currencies and the UAE dirham feed directly into the finished cost of imports and imported goods in Iran. In global markets, the dollar index (DXY) was little changed and the euro-dollar rate sat around 1.143; a calm global dollar usually gives gold room to breathe, and part of today's pullback in the ounce is caution before the Fed rather than weakness in gold. The axis of the global market today, though, was neither currencies nor equities but that oil barrel.
The takeaway
The verdict at midday is clear: this time oil led, not gold. The two assets that had risen shoulder to shoulder all week split apart today; Brent settled around $96.29 a barrel and pushed higher, while the global ounce slipped from its $4,150 record to around $4,109. The one thing to remember: the risk premium has not disappeared, it has simply moved, and now sits more in the energy price than in gold. For the domestic market, frozen on Wednesday's close over the holiday, the most important "price" this midday was neither the dollar nor the coin, but that oil barrel and the file standing behind it.
What to watch today and in the days ahead
- The oil trend: whether Brent consolidates above $96 or retreats as risk fades, and any fresh news on the security of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The path of global gold: whether today's pullback in the ounce runs into the Fed meeting, or safe-haven demand pushes it back toward the record.
- Fed meeting (Wednesday 29 July): the week's most important global event for gold and the dollar; the dominant expectation is that US rates hold, and the statement's tone will be the ounce's next anchor.
- Bourse reopening (Saturday 25 July): the floor's reaction to costlier oil and cooler gold, and whether the three-session rebound holds.
- For the events ahead, see the Sahmino economic calendar.
This report is a news review of market conditions and is not buy or sell advice. Figures carry their time and source, and domestic figures do not change materially on thin holiday sessions.
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