Lead
At dawn on Monday, 22 Tir 1405 (13 July 2026), the familiar pattern in global markets flipped. As tensions around the Strait of Hormuz flared again, Brent crude jumped nearly 4% into the $79 range; yet at the very same hours, spot gold fell for a second straight session, easing to about $4,055. This runs against the usual rule: when geopolitical risk rises, oil and gold typically climb together. This time the risk premium landed on oil, while gold retreated under a firmer dollar and caution ahead of the US inflation print. For Iran, the core point is one thing: the same tension pushing oil higher has been grinding down the Tehran bourse for five straight sessions.
Today at a glance
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|
| Brent crude | ~$79.1 | +4.1% |
| Spot gold | ~$4,055 | −1.6% |
| TEDPIX (Sunday) | 5,055,648 | −2.51% |
| Free-market USD | ~179,600 tomans | +0.79% |
| Exchange Center USD (sell) | 149,458 tomans | +0.09% |
| 18k gold (per gram) | 17,660,300 tomans | +1.05% |
| Emami coin | 178,010,000 tomans | +1.14% |
| Bitcoin | ~$62,862 | −2.1% |
Oil, spot gold, bitcoin and the dollar index refer to this morning, Monday (around 8 a.m. Tehran); the stock index is the official Sunday, 21 Tir close (12:30 p.m.); the free-market dollar, gold and coin refer to Sunday's end of trading (around 8 p.m.). The equity market reopens today at 9 a.m.
Today's headlines
- Oil jumps on Hormuz tension: per Trading Economics, Brent rose more than 3% past $78 on Monday morning, halting a two-day slide, driven by intensifying strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. Intraday data this morning put the gain near 4% and the price around $79.
- Gold slips again: per Trading Economics, spot gold fell nearly 1% Monday morning to about $4,081, then eased in intraday data toward $4,055; a second consecutive down session, as the market stayed cautious ahead of the US inflation data.
- Oman's Hormuz plan: per Fortune, Oman proposed routing ships through two separate corridors in the Strait of Hormuz; the plan was raised during Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's Saturday (20 Tir) visit to Muscat, and the Iranian delegation took it back to Tehran for review. Iran has declared the waterway "closed," while the US says the route is open.
- A data-heavy week in the US: per CNBC, June US consumer-price (inflation) data and the start of big-bank earnings are due Tuesday, 23 Tir (14 July), and the Federal Reserve chair testifies before Congress this week; releases that move the dollar and global gold.
- OPEC trims demand view: per Argus, in its July monthly report OPEC cut its 2026 global oil-demand growth forecast for a second straight month, to about 970,000 barrels per day.
Currency
The free-market dollar rose about 0.79% on Sunday to the 179,600 tomans area, still below last week's peak (above 180,000 tomans). On the official side, the sell rate for a dollar remittance at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center was little changed this morning at around 149,458 tomans; the gap between the free-market and Exchange Center rates thus remains about 30,000 tomans (near 20%). A pre-open signal: the Tether rate on the domestic crypto market was near 179,700 tomans this morning, very close to the free-market dollar; the absence of a meaningful Tether-dollar gap suggests foreign-currency demand has not picked up fresh momentum for now. The key point for today is that two external drivers, the oil jump and a firmer global dollar, push exchange-rate expectations in opposite directions: pricier oil supports FX revenue, but the tension behind it keeps the risk premium alive. (This paragraph is analysis, separate from the news; follow live rates on the currency page.)
Gold & Coin
The domestic gold and coin market was green on Sunday: a gram of 18-karat gold rose 1.05% to 17,660,300 tomans and a mesghal of gold reached about 76,499,000 tomans, while the Emami coin gained 1.14% and closed around 178 million tomans; the Bahar Azadi coin also rose 0.88%. The Emami coin premium (حباب, the gap between the coin's price and the intrinsic value of the gold and dollar inside it) was about 3.7 million tomans at Sunday's close. But this morning's picture is more complex: the global ounce, which anchors the domestic price, fell overnight and this morning. Because the domestic gram price is the global ounce multiplied by the free-market dollar (plus the premium and costs), if the free-market dollar holds steady today, the drop in the global ounce could put downward pressure on domestic gold and coin in today's session; the net result is tied to the dollar's path in the hours ahead. (See how karat and coin pricing work in this explainer.)
Stocks
The Tehran Stock Exchange main index (TEDPIX) closed Sunday, 21 Tir down 126,965 points (2.51%) at 5,055,648; this was its fifth consecutive losing session, and the Iran Fara Bourse index also fell 2.2% to about 39,113. Market reports pointed to a majority of symbols in the red at the close. The main driver of the decline is the same return of geopolitical risk and outflow of retail money in reaction to regional tensions, the very tension that lifted oil this morning. The key question for today's reopening is whether the five-day selloff finds a floor or extends. At the company level, the car-pricing dispute still weighs on automaker symbols, and in the banking group dividend-payment schedules from assemblies (including Bank Mellat from 10 Mordad) have been announced. Follow the divergence of recent days in yesterday's midday report. (Analysis, separate from the news.)
Crypto
The global crypto market was red this morning: Bitcoin traded down 2.1% near $62,862 and Ethereum fell about 2.1% to near $1,783; the decline tracked the firmer global dollar and softer risk appetite in Asian markets. The Tether rate on the domestic market was about 179,700 tomans. Because the toman price of crypto embeds the dollar rate, part of the toman-side swing reflects the currency's move, not just the global price.
Iron, steel & commodities
The steel market was calm. Size-10 ribbed rebar (A3, ex-works Aryan Foolad) traded around 67,270 tomans per kilogram, and sizes 12 and 14 in the 65,900 to 66,000 tomans range; close to recent levels. Domestic steel pricing depends on two drivers: the exchange rate and the global price of steel and raw materials, which are themselves sensitive to energy costs and the oil path. Today's oil jump acts, in the short term, more on freight costs and expectations than on the ex-works rebar price.
Cars
The car-pricing file is open: the Competition Council called the 15% factory-price increase approved by the Ministry of Industry "insufficient," and the matter is with oversight bodies. Until the factory prices are settled, the market margin (the gap between the open-market price and the factory price) on high-demand models stays volatile, and part of it is tied to the exchange-rate path.
Building materials
The building-materials market recorded no fresh, reliable price news and was quiet. Its main drivers remain seasonal construction demand and energy costs; with the dollar's limited swings in recent days, a fresh jump in cement and import-linked materials looks unlikely in the short term.
Regional & global backdrop
The axis of global markets today was the oil jump and gold's drop. Brent traded near $79 (up about 4%) and West Texas Intermediate near $73.8 (up 3.4%, per Reuters); nearly one-fifth of global oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and large-vessel traffic on the waterway's southern route has effectively halted since last week. Spot gold was around $4,055 to $4,081 and the US dollar index (DXY) near 101.1 (a touch firmer); a stronger dollar usually pressures the global gold price and explains part of today's decline. In Asia, per Reuters, Japan's Nikkei fell about 1% Monday, and the dollar and US Treasury yields (Friday at 4.541%) rose. In the neighborhood, the dollar-Turkish lira rate was near 47.0 and the dollar was around 6.78 against China's yuan; per Kpler and Vortexa, China's crude-oil imports fell in June to about 6.4 million barrels per day, the lowest since October 2016, one factor that had capped oil before the recent tension. In the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia's Tadawul index closed Sunday up 0.1% at 10,819. The channel to Tehran is clear: pricier oil supports FX revenue and refining stocks, but the tension behind it keeps equity and currency risk alive.
What to watch today
The most important domestic event today is the bourse reopening at 9 a.m.: does the five-day selloff find a floor, or does a sixth session turn red too? Whether sell queues clear will be the first signal. In gold and coin, watch how the domestic price reacts to the drop in the global ounce; if the dollar holds steady, downward pressure is likely. Globally, any fresh news on the Strait of Hormuz and the fate of Oman's two-corridor plan could move oil, currency and gold, and the US consumer-inflation data is due tomorrow (Tuesday, 23 Tir). See scheduled events on the market calendar. This section is a watch list only, not buy or sell advice.
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