Sahmino calls
Dated, directional views on the assets we track. Every call names the level at which it is wrong.
Calls on the board
66
Bullish
19
Bearish
11
Neutral
36
The calls' record
Every call is published with its levels and the price on the day it was written, and stays as written, even after its invalidation level breaks. “Since then” on each card is the price's move from the day it was written to today.
66 calls
ZobZOBIStocksBullishZOBI closed at 665 rials, above the 661 rial resistance; the view shifts from neutral to cautiously bullishThe view moves from neutral to bullish: today's close confirmed above the 661 rial resistance, exactly the rule set in the prior card. But with individuals net selling and buyer strength below one, I put the odds of this rally continuing to the next resistance at 695 rials at about 45%, and the odds of a slip back below the fresh support of 661 rials at about 30%. Full invalidation requires a close below 640 rials.Support661 rialsResistance695 rialsInvalidation640 rials7 hours agoPrice when published 662 rialsSince thenunchanged0.0%Equal-Weighted Total IndexTEPIXEWStocksBullishThe equal weight index set a fresh record at 2,150,438 points; its distance to the 2,200,000 resistance fell below 2.5%The bullish view strengthens: the equal weight index set a fresh record alongside TEDPIX, and its distance to the 2,200,000 point resistance narrowed to about 2.3%. With yesterday's retail flow positive, I put the odds of touching that resistance in the near term at about 55%; but with the risk free rate staying high, I also give about 25% odds of a slip back below the fresh support of 2,113,966 points. Full invalidation requires a close below 2,065,876 points.Support2,113,966Resistance2,200,000Invalidation2,065,8767 hours agoPrice when published 2,150,438Since thenunchanged0.0%Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) Total IndexTEDPIXStocksBullishTEDPIX crossed 8,000,000 points for the first time and set a fresh record; the equal weight index moved the same wayThe bullish view strengthens: TEDPIX crossed above the 8,000,000 point resistance for the first time, and the equal weight index moved the same way, so the gain was not confined to a few heavyweights. With the invalidation level (7,790,017 points) untouched, I put the odds of the index holding above 8,000,000 at about 50%, and the odds of slipping back below it in the near term at about 25%.Support8,000,000Invalidation7,790,0177 hours agoPrice when published 8,131,092Since thenunchanged0.0%Noghreabi Silver FundNOGHStocksNeutralNOGH lost the 14,150 rial support at today's close; the drop tracks silver and the dollar, not fund specific weaknessThe view moves from bullish to neutral: today's close lost the 14,150 rial support, but the drop matched global silver and the dollar rather than fund specific weakness, and volume stayed below average. While support at 13,660 rials holds, I put the odds of a return to 14,150 at about 40%; full invalidation requires a close below 13,492 rials.Support13,660 rialsResistance14,150 rialsInvalidation13,492 rials7 hours agoPrice when published 13,852 rialsSince thenunchanged0.0%Ayar Gold FundMOFDGoldNeutralA simultaneous pullback in gold and the free dollar pulled MOFD down 2.95%; the 750,000 rial resistance was only touched intradayThe view moves from bullish to neutral: the 750,000 rial resistance was only touched intraday, never closed above, while today's joint drop in gold and the dollar pulled the fund down 2.95%. While support at 713,145 rials holds, the uptrend stays intact; I put the odds of a fresh push above 750,000 at 45%, a slip below support at 30%, and full invalidation requires a close under 692,740 rials.Support713,145 rialsResistance750,000 rialsInvalidation692,740 rials7 hours agoPrice when published 717,100 rialsSince thenunchanged0.0%سخوزKHOCStocksBullishKHOC: Today's close at 97,740 rials broke above the 96,000 level; but thin volume and net retail selling raise doubtsWith the close confirmed above 96,000 rials, the view shifts from neutral to cautiously bullish: the path to the 106,000 rial high is open; but because this break came on below average volume and net retail selling, I put the chance of a reversal back below 96,000 in the coming sessions at about 35%; a repeat close above 96,000 on rising volume would cut that to below 20%.Support96,000 rialsResistance106,000 rialsInvalidation94,000 rials7 hours agoPrice when published 97,800 rialsSince thenunchanged0.0%LeverageAHRMStocksNeutralAHRM jumped 4% intraday, clearing the 73,627-rial resistance to reach 75,736 rials; today's close has not confirmed it yetI keep the neutral view pending close confirmation: the intraday price cleared the 73,627-rial resistance and today's closing estimate sits above it too, but volume is below average and individuals are net selling, and the gap to NAV looks more like calculation lag than real demand. If today's close settles above 73,627 rials, the view turns bullish; a close back below 69,648 rials keeps it bearish. Because AHRM is leveraged both ways, the risk here is asymmetric and larger than an ordinary stock.Support71,004 rialsResistance73,627 rialsInvalidation69,648 rials10 hours agoPrice when published 75,736 rialsSince thenunchanged0.0%چکاوهKSKAStocksNeutralKSKA locked its buy queue for a fifth straight session, reaching 17,120 rials; today's net individual flow is zero on the thinnest volume of this runI keep the neutral view: the buy queue locked for a fifth straight session and set a fresh record, but net individual buying has shrunk day by day and hit zero today, with volume far below average; given the losses and the prior negative-equity disclosure, this rally has no fundamental backing. If the close falls back below 16,630 rials, that would be the first break in this run. I put the odds of the queue continuing at about 40 percent, not because of confirmed demand but simply because no supply has shown up yet.Support15,230 rialsInvalidation16,630 rials10 hours agoPrice when published 17,120 rialsSince thenunchanged0.0%غویتاVITZFarabourseBullishVITZ (Vitana) filled its buy queue to today's price-band ceiling of 7,590 rials, but individual investors have net sold for a second straight sessionI keep the bullish view but with more caution than the last card: the trend and both moving averages stay bullish and no invalidation level has been touched, but two straight sessions of sizable net individual selling and the free dollar outrunning September's price hike are both warning signs. I put roughly 45 to 50 percent odds on the uptrend continuing with this intensity through the stated horizon; otherwise a pause or pullback toward the 6,980 to 7,370 rial channel is the more likely path.Support7,370 rialsInvalidation6,400 rials10 hours agoPrice when published 7,590 rialsSince thenunchanged0.0%18 karat goldXAU18GoldBullish18K Gold Sets a Record for a Fourth Straight Session at 267,383,000 Rials, Still a Dollar Story Not an Ounce OneThe bullish view holds: this fourth straight record is still mainly a free-market dollar story, not the global ounce, which has stayed almost flat. I am raising the support to 262,253,000 rials and the invalidation to 256,944,000 rials. The risk of a dollar reversal on any diplomatic progress still stands. I put about 60% odds on the price holding above the new support by about 29 Mehr.Support262,253,000 rialsInvalidation256,944,000 rials12 hours agoPrice when published 267,383,000 rialsSince thendown1.7%پارسانPASNStocksBullishParsan (PASN) Closes Above 36,760-Rial Resistance at a One-Year High of 37,230 RialsThe view turns bullish: today's close cleared the 36,760-rial resistance for the first time and reached a one-year high of 37,230 rials; but since this came alongside a 1.14% drop in global urea and a softer Brent, I read it as more of a domestic (rial weakness) driver than a global one. I put about 40% odds on a continued rise to the 37,870-rial resistance by about 29 Mehr; a sustained close below 34,940 rials would invalidate the view.Support36,760 rialsResistance37,870 rialsInvalidation34,940 rials12 hours agoPrice when published 37,240 rialsSince thenup3.0%وبملتBMLTStocksNeutralBank Mellat (BMLT) Closes Above 1,475-Rial Resistance at 1,490 Rials; View Reverts to NeutralPer the last card's own rule, a close above 1,475 rials reverts the view from bearish to neutral, but this reversal has been confirmed for only one session and volume is still below average. I put about 45% odds on the close holding above 1,475 rials over the next few sessions and 30% odds of a slip back toward the 1,410-rial invalidation; otherwise, a range between 1,410 and 1,558 rials looks more likely.Support1,475 rialsResistance1,558 rialsInvalidation1,410 rials12 hours agoPrice when published 1,490 rialsSince thenup3.0%BarakatBRKTStocksNeutralBarkat (BRKT) Sits 0.2% Below the 5,130-Rial Resistance; Trading Flow Still UnconfirmedThe neutral view holds: the price is now only 0.2% below the 5,130-rial resistance, but the flow confirmation triad is incomplete (buyer strength 0.73 and volume below average) and the P/E of 108.9 is 7.4 times the sector average of 14.69. I put about 35% odds on a confirmed close above the 5,130 resistance by about 21 Mehr and 40% odds on a pullback to the 4,860-rial support; the invalidation stays at 4,400 rials.Support4,860 rialsResistance5,130 rialsInvalidation4,400 rials12 hours agoPrice when published 5,120 rialsSince thenup1.2%خساپاSIPAStocksBullishKhesapa hit the ceiling of its fluctuation band at 703 rial; the previous card's decline scenario did not materializeThe decline scenario toward 662 rial, which the previous card had given a 40 percent probability, did not materialize; instead the price rose in succession to the ceiling of the fluctuation band (703 rial) in the session of 14 Mehr. I give about a 50 percent probability to a test of the 716 rial resistance by 29 Mehr, but since volume is still below the monthly average and the real-money flow signal is not confirmed, I am keeping the invalidation level at 662 rial.Support680 rialsResistance716 rialsInvalidation662 rials12 hours agoPrice when published 703 rialsSince thendown0.1%وبصادرBSDRStocksBearishBSDR rose 2.93% to 914 rials; no level broke, and the bearish view continues with greater cautionThe bearish view continues with more caution: no level broke today, the price remains below the 932 resistance and 968 invalidation, but the 2.93% gain tracked the main index rebound more than any bank-specific improvement. I put roughly 45% probability on the close staying below 932 through the stated horizon and resuming its decline; a sustained move above 968 would drop this view.Support852 rialsResistance932 rialsInvalidation968 rialsyesterdayPrice when published 914 rialsSince thenup3.0%وغدیرGDIRStocksNeutralGDIR rose 2.99% to 21,720 rials, nearing the 22,420-rial resistance; the view stays neutralThe neutral view holds within the 20,330 to 22,420-rial channel: today's price neared the ceiling but volume stayed below average. I put roughly 45% probability on reaching or clearing 22,420 rials; a sustained drop below 20,660 turns the view bearish. The main risk is the open gap between the free-market and remittance dollars for the export and refining units.Support20,330 rialsResistance22,420 rialsInvalidation20,660 rialsyesterdayPrice when published 21,720 rialsSince thenup3.0%ومعادنMADNStocksBullishMADN decisively broke above the 3,680-rial resistance to a fresh 52-week high; the view changes from neutral to bullishThe view moves from neutral to bullish: today's close cleared the 3,680-rial resistance, setting a fresh 52-week high; the new invalidation level is 3,490. I put roughly 55% probability on it holding above 3,680 toward 3,790 rials; the main risk is volume below average and a gain that tracks the main index.Support3,680 rialsResistance3,790 rialsInvalidation3,490 rialsyesterdayPrice when published 3,690 rialsSince thenup3.0%نوریNORIStocksBearishNouri Loses Both the 48,840 Support and the 47,790 Invalidation; a Tenth Straight Session of Net Individual Selling Turns This Card BearishWith the close breaking both published levels and a tenth straight session of net individual selling, we move to bearish: about 55% odds Nouri prints at least one close below 46,400 rials through the horizon; a closing recovery above 48,840 rials would invalidate this view.Support46,400 rialsResistance47,790 rialsInvalidation48,840 rials2 days agoPrice when published 47,900 rialsSince thenup4.8%مسCOPPERCommodityNeutralCopper Invalidates the Prior Bearish Call; the $14,430 Close Breaks Through the $14,420 Invalidation and Turns This Card NeutralThe prior bearish call is invalidated; with price sitting between its 50 and 20 day averages, short term China and dollar pressure on one side and long term inventory tightness on the other, we move to neutral on this card: about 50% odds copper stays between $14,238.5 and $14,544.5 through the horizon; for Mes Melli, since its revenue converts at the Exchange Centre remittance rate rather than the free dollar, the rial payoff from this swing will be far more muted than the dollar move in copper.Support$14,355Resistance$14,544.5Invalidation$14,238.52 days agoPrice when published $14,430Since thenup0.5%Cash Molten SteelXAUMELTGoldBullishGold Melt Breaks Through the 1,150,000,000 Rial Resistance; the Engine Is Not Global Gold, It Is the Free Dollar's 14% Weekly JumpWith the close breaking through the 1,150,000,000 rial resistance and setting a fresh 52 week high, the bullish view continues; but since the main driver is the free dollar's jump while global gold fell at the same time, we put roughly 60% odds on the melt staying above 1,150,000,000 rials (the new support) through the horizon and approaching 1,200,000,000 rials.Support1,150,000,000 rialsResistance1,200,000,000 rialsInvalidation1,113,150,000 rials2 days agoPrice when published 1,152,010,000 rialsSince thendown1.0%وبرقSEIPFarabourseBearishVobargh: Published support of 59,040 broken on a closing basis; less than half a percent from invalidation at 58,340With the closing break of support at 59,040 and a gap of less than half a percent to invalidation at 58,340, and without the three-way confirmation of real-money inflow, there is roughly a 60 percent chance that future closes remain below 59,040 and that pressure toward 58,340 continues; the thin liquidity of the base market could intensify this move in either direction or lead to a trading halt of the symbol.Support58,340 rialsResistance64,800 rialsInvalidation59,040 rials2 days agoPrice when published 59,190 rialsSince thenup4.8%شلردSHLPFarabourseBearishShelrad touched the 3,560 rial support intraday in the IFB base market and then returned to 3,730 rial without reliable volumeI maintain the bearish view with caution: the 3,560 support was touched and held intraday, but today's return is not confirmed by volume below the monthly average and neutral retail flow. The 3,860 invalidation level has not been touched and the previous card is not voided. The cause of the decline is the gap between the free dollar's rise and the exchange center's remittance rate. I estimate about 55 percent probability that the closing price by 18 Mehr approaches 3,560; the key risk is the thin liquidity of the base market.Support3,560 rialsInvalidation3,860 rials2 days agoPrice when published 3,730 rialsSince thendown0.5%رمپناMAPNStocksNeutralRampana broke the 12,120 rial support intraday and reached a low of 12,080 rial; the close has not confirmed yetThe view downgrades from bullish to neutral: the break of the 12,120 rial support is intraday, not confirmed by close; the invalidation level of 11,440 has not been touched and the previous card is not void. But a seller strength of 0.59, volume 3.6 times the average, and real-money selling of 30 million shares are concerning. Until the close is clear, I give a 55 percent probability of consolidation below 12,120 and a 45 percent probability of the break holding; the main risk is delay in collection of government receivables.Support12,120 rialsResistance12,580 rialsInvalidation11,440 rials2 days agoPrice when published 12,080 rialsSince thendown2.8%کگلGOLGStocksNeutralKegel; fresh closing price shut below the 3,112 rial support level, coinciding with heavy retail net outflow, verdict reverts to neutralWith the 3,112 support broken at the closing price (albeit by only 2 rials) and the largest net retail outflow of the past week, we are changing the verdict from bullish to neutral; 3,112 is now resistance and 3,042 is the fresh support. Unlike Foolad and Fameli, Kegel's profitability is mostly domestic and tied to the Iran Mercantile Exchange base price, not Nima or the free market rate. Only a closing price below 2,910 or above 3,112 rial will clarify the next verdict.Support3,042 rialsResistance3,112 rialsInvalidation2,910 rials4 days agoPrice when published 3,100 rialsSince thenup4.5%خگسترGOSTStocksBullishKhegostar; in a single session both resistance at 4,050 and support at 3,930 were touched, the closing price landed exactly on resistanceThe price closed exactly on resistance at 4,050, not above it; I remain bullish with the same caution as before, around a 50 percent probability of a decisive breakout by 22 Mehr. Volume is 1.72 times the average, still below the double threshold, and this symbol carries speculative flow; until an official ruling on freeing car prices, the buy queues could reverse quickly.Support3,890 rialsResistance4,050 rialsInvalidation3,840 rials4 days agoPrice when published 4,080 rialsSince thenup8.6%شستاTAMNStocksNeutralShasta; break of the 3,700 rial support that triggered the bullish vote, closing price 3,660 rial and vote back to neutralWith the closing price closing below the 3,700 support that had triggered the bullish vote, we return to neutral; 3,700 is now resistance and the near support is 3,620; the invalidation line at 3,550 remains untouched. Since Shasta is effectively representative of the whole market, its P/E (16.34) is still about 41 percent higher than the industry (11.56). Only a closing price below 3,550 or above 3,700 rial will clarify the next vote.Support3,620 rialsResistance3,700 rialsInvalidation3,550 rials4 days agoPrice when published 3,620 rialsSince thenup2.8%فملیMSMIStocksBullishFameli; with a buy queue for the third session, the closing price broke above the 27,870 rial resistance and hit a 52-week recordWith the closing price breaking above the 27,870 resistance and setting a 52-week record alongside a buy queue for the third session, we renew 27,870 as support and 26,080 as the invalidation line; we raise the probability of continued growth until 15 Mehr to 70 percent. The real driver of the growth is the 9.2 percent rise in the exchange center's remittance dollar, not the 14 percent jump in the free-market dollar, which is a cost pressure. Risk: buyer strength is below 1 and retail inflow is weak.Support27,870 rialsInvalidation26,080 rials4 days agoPrice when published 28,210 rialsSince thenup9.8%HamrahHMRZStocksNeutralHamrah; the gap above 10,000 on 11 Mehr was retraced, closing price returned to the middle of the 9,560 to 10,000 rangeWith the retracement of the gap above 10,000 and the return to the middle of the range, we lower the probability of resistance rejection from 55 to 45 percent; we remain neutral until the closing price moves past 9,280 or 10,000 rial. The consumer price index has grown about 82 percent over the past eleven months; measure the rial growth of the price against this same figure, not real growth. The 11 percent float keeps the risk of rapid swings high.Support9,560 rialsResistance10,000 rialsInvalidation9,280 rials4 days agoPrice when published 9,550 rialsSince thenup5.5%RefiningPLSHStocksNeutralThe refining fund hit a fresh record today (648,498 rial) but fell intraday below the 618,987 rial support; the market is still openI am adjusting the view from cautiously bullish to neutral: today the price both set a fresh record and fell intraday below the 618,987 support, but since the market is still open and the closing price has not yet been recorded, this cannot be considered a definite breakdown. I give about a 40 percent chance that today's closing price settles above 618,987; a definite and sustained break below the redemption line of 610,077 would make this view fully bearish.Support618,987 rialsResistance648,498 rialsInvalidation610,077 rials4 days agoPrice when published 616,979 rialsSince thenunchanged0.0%شترانPTEHStocksNeutralShetran went below support of 6,570 rial; final price not yet recorded and the cancellation line of 6,340 remains untouchedI remain neutral, with a slightly more bearish tilt than the previous card: I give close to a 50 percent probability that today's or the next session's final price closes below 6,570 rial (broken support), but less than a 20 percent probability that by 14 Mehr the final price goes below the cancellation line of 6,340, since that level was previously touched once and held. The main risk remains the feed and product rate formula staying without a figure, and the continued jump in Brent.Support6,400 rialsResistance6,880 rialsInvalidation6,340 rials4 days agoPrice when published 6,500 rialsSince thenunchanged0.0%غپینوMINOStocksBullishFapino got within 2 percent of its 52-week high of 2,174 rial, while retail investors were net sellers over the last two sessionsI remain bullish with slightly higher confidence: the distance to the 52-week high has narrowed to about 2 percent, but since retail was a net seller over the last two sessions and no material disclosure has clarified the reason for the queue, I put about a 50 percent probability on it reaching or passing the 2,174 rial high by around the end of Mehr 25. Risk: a queue with no disclosed reason can reverse just as fast, in a single session.Support2,048 rialsResistance2,174 rialsInvalidation1,989 rials5 days agoPrice when published 2,169 rialsSince thendown3.9%Brent oilBRENTCommodityNeutralBrent rebounded 6.1 percent from the $96 floor in three sessions but failed to break the $103.6 barrier; stance shifted from bearish to neutralI'm turning neutral: despite intensified attacks on tankers, the return of West Asia exports to 98 percent of pre-war levels and the West's release of gasoil reserves caps the upside; I estimate about a 50 percent probability that Brent stays between $95.226 and $105.951 (closing) through 21 Mehr. Refining profitability is determined by the crack spread, not the oil level. Risk: a more effective strike on Persian Gulf exports or a temporary closure of Hormuz could break this range in a single session.Support$95.23Resistance$103.62Invalidation$105.955 days agoPrice when published $102.25Since thendown1.9%Rob SekkehQUARTERCoinBullishQuarter coin hit a record 710 million rial as the dollar crossed the 250,000-toman channel; bubble 12.7 percentI'm turning bullish: I put about 60 percent probability that the quarter coin's closing price stays above 650 million rial through 22 Mehr, because the free dollar has broken the 250,000-toman channel and the global ounce has stayed high. The main risk is the 12.7 percent bubble: easing of Strait of Hormuz and nuclear tensions, or fresh supply of parallel coin futures on the commodity exchange, could deflate it before it reaches intrinsic value sooner.Support680,000,000 rialsInvalidation650,000,000 rials8 days agoPrice when published 710,000,000 rialsSince thenup7.5%CommodityKALAStocksBullishNeutral call on Kala invalidated; yesterday's close above 11,360 rial broke the previous channel, but still lacks volume confirmationMy view is cautiously bullish: I estimate roughly a 55 percent probability that Kala's closing price stays above 11,360 rial over this period and reaches the 52-week high of 11,660 rial, but because yesterday's breakout came on below-average volume with a buyer-to-seller power of 0.92, and institutions have remained net sellers over the past 20 sessions, the risk of a return to the previous channel is real, and this is a cautious estimate, not a certain one.Support11,360 rialsResistance11,660 rialsInvalidation11,360 rials9 days agoPrice when published 11,570 rialsSince thenup20.3%EnergyBENCStocksNeutralTwo sessions of recovery was enough: Energy's close of 22,730 rial invalidated our bearish callI'm declaring the bearish call lost and going neutral: I give about 55 percent probability that the closing price stays between 21,480 and 23,840 rial through 15 Mehr, since the two-day recovery came on volume less than half the average. Risk: this stock's high price-to-earnings ratio makes it sensitive to monthly trading statistics, and a strong figure could break the ceiling in a single session.Support22,080 rialsResistance23,840 rialsInvalidation21,480 rials9 days agoPrice when published 22,740 rialsSince thenup1.5%Half CoinHALFCoinNeutralThe half-coin bubble went from 3.4 to 5.8 percent in one day and broke the 1,240 million rial ceilingI'm declaring the previous range lost and staying neutral: I give about 55 percent probability that the closing price will not fall below 1,220 million rial by 18 Mehr, because the free-market dollar keeps intrinsic value elevated. Risk: about 68 million rial of today's price is bubble, and an auction announcement or a dollar reversal could drain it quickly.Support1,240,000,000 rialsInvalidation1,220,000,000 rials9 days agoPrice when published 1,260,000,000 rialsSince thenup12.6%UAE DirhamAEDCurrencyNeutralThe dirham has blown through our 646,530 rial target, and its premium to the free dollar is still near zeroI am closing the bullish call on reaching the target and turning neutral: I put about 55 percent odds that the dirham does not close below 639,960 rial by 14 Mehr, because the political risk behind the free dollar's jump — namely the rejection of Hormuz's proposal, per the FXStreet report (6 Mehr) — is still open. Risk: the dirham is just the free dollar divided by the peg, and any reversal in the dollar reaches it one for one.Support654,520 rialsInvalidation639,960 rials9 days agoPrice when published 663,320 rialsSince thenup8.4%EuroEURCurrencyNeutralTehran's euro rose 3.43 percent on a day the euro fell 0.12 percent against the dollarI'm calling the previous window lost and staying neutral: I put about a 55 percent chance that the euro will not close below 2,679,100 rial by 12 Mehr, since the rial-side political risk remains open. Risk: here the euro is only a shadow of the free dollar; any reversal in the dollar reaches the euro directly, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike are also keeping the global leg down.Support2,736,600 rialsInvalidation2,679,100 rials9 days agoPrice when published 2,770,900 rialsSince thenup6.6%ونیکیNIKIStocksNeutral455 buyers stayed in the queue at Vanики's ceiling and the 5,590 rial cancellation line left our bearish call behindI declare the bearish call lost and go neutral: I give about 55 percent probability that the closing price stays between 5,360 and 5,740 rial until 15 Mehr, since today's queue came with volume near half the average. Risk: with the 13 percent float, this same low-volume queue could hit the 5,740 ceiling tomorrow as well, and on the other side a down day for the overall index could take it back.Support5,490 rialsResistance5,740 rialsInvalidation5,360 rials9 days agoPrice when published 5,650 rialsSince thenup4.1%TetherUSDT_IRRCryptoNeutralTether passed this morning's card target, and its premium to the free dollar fell to just half a percentI am closing the bullish call as the target has been reached, and turning neutral: I give about 55 percent probability that Tether will not close below 2,367,880 rial by 14 Mehr, because the small premium means Tether is just tracking the free dollar, and the political risk behind it is still open. Risk: any news of talks or currency supply would bring the dollar and Tether down together.Invalidation2,367,880 rials9 days agoPrice when published 2,445,050 rialsSince thenup8.5%شفنPFANStocksNeutralShepna closed at the ceiling with a small buy queue, at a price-to-earnings ratio nearly three times the groupThe previous range forecast from above turned out wrong, and I remain neutral with a higher range: I give about 55 percent probability that no closing price below 7,260 rial will be recorded until 15 Mehr, because methanol and the remittance dollar have filled below earnings. Risk: today's queue is small and the valuation is near three times the group, and with a 15 percent float, one session of supply is enough to break this level.Support7,440 rialsInvalidation7,260 rials9 days agoPrice when published 7,660 rialsSince thenup6.4%US DollarUSDCurrencyNeutralThe free dollar's bullish target was rejected with a 3.75 percent jump, and its gap with the remittance dollar reached 42 percentI'm closing the bullish call on reaching the target and going neutral: I put roughly 55 percent probability that the free dollar will not close below 2,350,000 rial by 14 Mehr, because the political risk that built the jump is still open. Risk runs both ways: a possible negotiation this week or a currency supply could take back part of the jump, while a fresh military headline could extend it.Support2,402,600 rialsInvalidation2,350,000 rials9 days agoPrice when published 2,433,000 rialsSince thenup8.2%Mesghal Gold FundZARAGoldNeutralThree gold funds, three premiums: Mesghal 2.16, Gang 2.13 and Ayar 4.59 percent in one dayMy own rule is that a premium under 3 percent is neutral, and I remain neutral, but I declare the premium forecast lost and lower my confidence from 60 to 50 percent that no closing price above 197,562 rial will be recorded through 16 Mehr. Risk: the last trade right now is above this line, and continued growth in the free dollar is enough to break it.Support193,179 rialsInvalidation197,562 rials9 days agoPrice when published 197,977 rialsSince thenup5.1%Ganj Gold FundGANJGoldNeutralGanj crossed our neutral invalidation line and its premium reached 2.13 percent, less than half Ayar's premiumI declare the neutral card lost and stay neutral with a new window: I give about 55 percent probability that no closing price below 205,749 rial will be recorded until 19 Mehr, because the free dollar is lifting net asset value. Risk: the 2.13 percent premium is new, and with a reversal in the dollar or continued decline in the ounce, the price could fall from both sides at once, the underlying asset and the premium.Support207,384 rialsResistance212,579 rialsInvalidation205,749 rials9 days agoPrice when published 212,491 rialsSince thenup4.2%فولادFOLDStocksBullishOur neutral channel on Fooladebroke from above: closing at 3,420 rial with a buy queue at the ceilingI consider the previous period's forecast lost, and I am turning bullish: I give about 60 percent probability that no closing price below 3,260 rial will be recorded until 15 Mehr, because the heavy buy queue is accompanied by retail buying and a price-to-earnings ratio half that of the group. Risk: volume is half the average, and this same stock reversed from 3,410 to 3,300 rial in a single session on 28 Shahrivar.Support3,330 rialsInvalidation3,260 rials9 days agoPrice when published 3,420 rialsSince thenup16.7%شپناPNESStocksNeutralShepna hit its band ceiling with a buy queue, on volume that didn't even reach half the monthly averageI remain neutral but raise the range: I give about 55 percent probability that no closing price below 12,340 rial will be recorded through 15 Mehr, because today's buy queue came without volume support and the ceiling of 13,470 rial from 28 Shahrivar still sits overhead. Risk: Shepna's 20-day volatility is 2.47 percent per day, so the 5.5 percent distance to the invalidation line is only about two negative sessions.Support12,720 rialsResistance13,470 rialsInvalidation12,340 rials9 days agoPrice when published 13,080 rialsSince thenup1.7%کمنگنزMNGZStocksBullishOur mistake on Kemanganese: the two-session neutral range has broken to the upside and the stock is in a buy queue at its 52-week highI accept the range was a mistake and turn bullish with limited confidence: I put roughly a 55 percent probability that the closing price stays above 9,450 rial through 14 Mehr and at least one close is recorded higher than 10,020. The risk is right here: this rally was built on volume less than one-fifth of the average, and in a ticker that had two sessions this very month with no recorded trades, the buy queue can open back up just as fast with the first bit of supply.Invalidation9,450 rials10 days agoPrice when published 10,020 rialsSince thenup11.0%Gold ounceXAUUSDCommodityBearishOunce below $4,200: our bearish target was breached intraday today, now the daily close is decisiveI remain bearish and I'm raising the probability of a daily close below $4,235.82 by 20 Mehr from 55 to about 65 percent; I'm lowering the invalidation level from $4,373.85 to $4,314.94 (the 3 Mehr high). Risk: a weak US data print or an escalation of the war that drives safe-haven demand could reverse today's drop before the close.Support$4,235.82Resistance$4,285Invalidation$4,314.9410 days agoPrice when published $4,191.16Since thendown1.6%Dollar Exchange CenterUSD_ICECurrencyBullishThe gap between the remittance dollar and the free-market dollar narrowed from 41.6 to 36 percent in one month; the exchange center rate stands at 1,728,507 rialI remain bullish and hold the target of 1,750,000 rial by 15 Mehr with about 70 percent probability; I'm raising the invalidation level one step, from 1,706,268 to 1,717,400 rial. The risk is right here: this is the Central Bank's dictated rate, not the market's, and a single announcement could halt the steps or reverse them.Resistance1,750,000 rialsInvalidation1,717,400 rials10 days agoPrice when published 1,728,507 rialsSince thenup2.6%ZagrosPZGZFarabourseNeutralOne session, the whole range: Zagros went from a low of 158,800 to 168,200 rial, and the neutral range support moved higherI remain neutral and raise the range support from 155,190 to 163,500 rial, because the 5 Mehr low was reclaimed in a single session: I put roughly 55 percent probability that the closing price stays below 177,700 rial through 25 Mehr. The risk is two-sided: a 2.3x group multiple and winter feed gas weigh on the ceiling, while institutional buying could break the 173,200 ceiling before then.Support163,500 rialsResistance173,200 rialsInvalidation177,700 rials10 days agoPrice when published 168,600 rialsSince thendown2.7%اخابرMKBTStocksBearishAkhaber rebounded from the bottom of its range to 1,015 rial and touched the 1,000 resistance, but the closing price of 996 rial stayed below itI remain bearish but am lowering confidence from 55 to about 50 percent: the highs keep coming in lower and the price is below the 20-day average, but the defense of 961 rial and the first net real (retail) buying in seven sessions show the seller is no longer one-sided. The risk is in that same sentence: a closing price above 1,020 rial would invalidate this view, and the low 23 percent free float would make such a move quick.Support961 rialsResistance1,045 rialsInvalidation1,020 rials10 days agoPrice when published 1,003 rialsSince thenup9.0%غکورشKRSHStocksNeutralGhekoresh broke through the 25,840 rial resistance, but the two conditions for the previous card to turn bullish are still unmetI remain neutral and raise the invalidation level from 24,340 to 24,660 rial (31 Shahrivar closing): I estimate about a 60 percent probability that no closing below it will be recorded by 22 Mehr. I am not turning bullish because today's buy queue was built with volume less than one-sixth of the average; the main risk is the Consumer Protection Organization's ruling on the consumer price, and if the general meeting does not approve the capital increase proposal, part of this rally will be given back.Support25,290 rialsResistance27,150 rialsInvalidation24,660 rials10 days agoPrice when published 26,710 rialsSince thenup9.1%سصوفیSSOFStocksNeutralSosoufi's buy queue stood 1.5 percent below the invalidation line; the bearish call didn't reach its target and is going neutralThe bearish call from 29 Shahrivar neither hit its target nor was invalidated; with six sessions left to the end of the horizon, I'm moving it to neutral and keeping the invalidation line at 167,500 rial: I give about 55 percent probability that no closing price above it is registered by 14 Mehr. Risk: the gap is only 1.5 percent and one more buy-queue session is enough to invalidate this call.Support160,400 rialsInvalidation167,500 rials10 days agoPrice when published 165,200 rialsSince thenup4.0%وتجارتBTEJStocksNeutralVetejarat broke above the 923 rial line with a closing price of 934 rial, invalidating the Mehr 1 neutral callI remain neutral, but I am moving the invalidation line downward: I put about 55 percent probability that the closing price will not fall below 867 rial (the Shahrivar 31 close) by 19 Mehr. Risk: I am not turning bullish because today's rise came with net retail selling and the P/E premium over the group is high; if institutional buying stops, a return below 923 rial would be fast.Support892 rialsResistance978 rialsInvalidation867 rials10 days agoPrice when published 942 rialsSince thendown1.9%ورازیRZIPFarabourseBearishVorazi's 1,647 rial target in the yellow base hit; sell queue of 56 million shares is nearly double a normal day's volumeI remain bearish and lower the target to 1,561 rial (closing of 25 Shahrivar) and bring the invalidation level down from 1,745 to 1,695 rial: I give about a 55 percent probability that the close will be recorded at or below 1,561 rial by 14 Mehr. Risk: in the base market a single large buyer can clear the queue in one day, and the Hormuz file that Araghchi spoke of its conditions on 5 Mehr (Donya-e-Eqtesad citing ISNA) determines the whole market's swing, not this insurer's profit.Support1,561 rialsInvalidation1,695 rials10 days agoPrice when published 1,632 rialsSince thenup16.6%شپدیسPRDZStocksBearishThe 12,900 rial floor we had set for Shepdis broke; retail has been selling one-sidedly for two sessionsI'm calling the neutral card lost and turning bearish: I put about 55 percent probability that by 15 Mehr a closing price at or below 12,420 rial will be recorded. The risk is right here: global urea is trending up and the ratio of 6.7 is cheap, so with a 17 percent free float a buy queue could reverse this call in a single session; a close above 13,000 rial invalidates it.Support12,420 rialsInvalidation13,000 rials10 days agoPrice when published 12,720 rialsSince thendown2.1%حکشتیKSHJStocksBearishOur neutral range for Heckshatee broke from below; the chart went against global freight rates and now I'm turning bearishI am turning bearish: I give around 55 percent probability that a closing price below 8,270 rial (closing price of 2 Shahrivar) will be recorded by 15 Mehr. The risk is right here and serious: this view relies only on the chart, and the freight fundamentals are in the opposite direction; Codal's monthly report with a higher implied freight rate could reverse it in a single day, and we do not have a dated figure for the regional war insurance premium in hand.Support8,270 rialsResistance8,880 rialsInvalidation9,020 rials11 days agoPrice when published 8,730 rialsSince thenup0.2%FarsPKLJStocksNeutralFars's bearish target was achieved in a single session, and China methanol got 18.7 percent more expensive in a monthThe bearish target was reached and I'm moving to neutral: I give around 55 percent probability that the closing price stays between 11,414 and 12,470 rial until 15 Mehr, as more expensive methanol and a higher remittance dollar fill the floor from below and retail selling caps it from above. The risk is right here: the winter gas-restriction season is near and directly cuts methanol tonnage, and we have no up-to-date NAV for this holding's portfolio.Resistance12,470 rialsInvalidation11,414 rials11 days agoPrice when published 11,790 rialsSince thenup12.6%Silver 999XAG999GoldNeutralSilver 999 from Bullish to Neutral: Ounce Fell Back 3 Percent and the Free Dollar Offset Only Part of ItI am moving from bullish to neutral, because the target remained untouched and instead of helping, the global leg pulled the price down. I give about 55 percent probability that the price stays between 4,954,900 and 5,139,600 rial until 15 Mehr. Risk: a jump in the free dollar could break the range from above even with the ounce steady, and a drop in the ounce with silver's high volatility could break it from below.Resistance5,139,600 rialsInvalidation4,954,900 rials11 days agoPrice when published 5,045,300 rialsSince thenup5.8%کچادCHMLStocksNeutralI'm taking back this morning's bearish call: Kchad's last trade broke above the 2,840 rial invalidation ceilingI'm coming to neutral: the closing move weakened the case for the bearish call, but retail was a seller and volume was below average, so I'm not turning bullish either. I give about 55 percent probability that no closing price above 2,930 rial is recorded through 12 Mehr. Risk: with 18 percent float, one large institutional buyer entering can break this ceiling quickly.Support2,649 rialsInvalidation2,930 rials11 days agoPrice when published 2,859 rialsSince thenup10.2%Dara YekomDARAStocksBearishDara Yekom reached and passed the 535,306 rial target; we're lowering the invalidation level, and the next target is 521,371 rialI remain bearish and I'm lowering the invalidation level from 567,843 to 554,727 rial: I put roughly 60 percent probability on a closing price at or below 521,371 rial by 19 Mehr. The risk is right here: a Money and Credit Council resolution or market-making news could close the 36 percent discount in two sessions and render this call meaningless.Support521,371 rialsResistance546,507 rialsInvalidation554,727 rials11 days agoPrice when published 530,112 rialsSince thenup3.8%BitcoinBTCCryptoBullishBitcoin fell below the $85,136 support while ETFs are still buying, but less every dayI remain bullish because ETF money is still coming in, but I am lowering my confidence from 60 to 50 percent: I put roughly a 50 percent probability on a daily close above $87,253.40 by 15 Mehr. Risk: if ETF inflows reverse into outflows, with the 2.57 percent daily volatility two sessions are enough for the price to fall below $81,892.69, which would invalidate this view.Support$83,042.76Resistance$87,253.4Invalidation$81,892.6912 days agoPrice when published $83,995.45Since thendown0.5%EthereumETHCryptoNeutralThe $2,717 Ethereum support was lost on Mehr 1, and I am moving the bullish call back to neutralI am going from bullish to neutral, because the support I had set myself was lost on a closing-price basis: I give about a 60 percent probability that Ethereum stays between $2,631.96 and $2,801.80 through Mehr 21. Risk: with daily volatility of 3.16 percent, this range is only about two ordinary sessions wide, and a close below $2,631.96 would invalidate this view.Support$2,635.97Resistance$2,801.8Invalidation$2,631.9612 days agoPrice when published $2,689.27Since thendown4.3%Emami CoinEMAMICoinNeutralThis time the bubble rose along with the Emami coin, reaching one step from our 2 percent lineI remain neutral but am widening the band: I give about 60 percent probability that by 14 Mehr the closing price will stay between 2,339,800,000 and 2,440,100,000 rial. The "bubble under 2 percent" forecast is on the edge, and I am lowering my confidence in it to about 50 percent. Risk: a jump in the free-market dollar, or an auction announcement that drains the bubble overnight.Support2,349,800,000 rialsResistance2,440,100,000 rialsInvalidation2,339,800,000 rials12 days agoPrice when published 2,400,100,000 rialsSince thenup11.4%شبندرPNBAStocksNeutralShepna is locked at the ceiling and Shebandar only touched itI stay neutral and apply my rule the same way: today resistance was rejected only by the last trade, not by the closing price, and in that case I do not turn bullish; just as I turn bullish when the closing price rejects it. I move the invalidation level from 13,920 to 14,010 rial and put the probability at about 55 percent that no close below it will be recorded by the end of the horizon. Risk: Shebandar sits on the Strait of Hormuz, and any change there shifts both feedstock and product exports.Support14,410 rialsResistance15,580 rialsInvalidation14,010 rials14 days agoPrice when published 15,060 rialsSince thendown1.7%خودروIKCOStocksBearishYesterday it had buyers up to 717 rial, today 402 million shares offered against 20 thousand shares demandedI remain bearish but let me be explicit this is not fundamental analysis: in a listing with negative EPS, the move is queue-driven, and I too am reading the queue, not the income statement. I put about 55 percent probability that a close below 629 rial will be recorded by 14 Mehr 1405. The risk is the same one that always exists in this listing: a Competition Council ruling or supply news on the integrated system could turn this card around within two sessions.Support629 rialsResistance686 rialsInvalidation697 rials15 days agoPrice when published 666 rialsSince thenup9.9%